Natural and societal consequences of climate-forced changes of Jostedalsbreen Ice Cap

The JOSTICE project started in earnest in 2021. The spring fieldwork on Jostedalsbreen Ice Cap was carried out in the period from 11 to 24 April. Due to covid restrictions, the fieldwork crew was divided into three cohorts, where two operated alternately on the central and southern part of the glacier, while one cohort operated in the north. During the fieldwork, measurements of snow and ice thickness were carried out with radar along longitudinal and transverse profiles, and the mass density of snow was measured. We covered most of the central and southern part of the plateau and have collected a large part of the most important data. In the northern part of the glacier, there were problems with the equipment, so this area must be measured again in 2022. In addition, the focus for radar mapping in 2022 will be on measuring the largest and most important outlet glaciers. The preliminary non-quality checked results shows that Jostedalsbreen is up to 600 m thick. In other places the ice is below 25 m, which indicates that Jostedalsbreen will separate into different parts within the coming decades. In the summer of 2021, an automatic weather station (AWS) was installed on the outlet glacier Nigardsbreen together with several temperature loggers. Ongoing maintenance visits have been carried out throughout the autumn. The weather station will provide input data for modeling of glacier dynamics and the interaction between glacier and atmosphere. To date, we also have two years of data from surveys of tourists visiting Nigardsbreen. Fieldwork with drones was carried out from 30 August to 9 September 2021 on eight outlet glaciers. Data is being processed, and the results so far look very promising. Among other things, these measurements will be linked to the surface mapping of Jostedalsbreen Ice Cap - work that has also begun in 2021. Between 2 - 5 September 2021 the "JOSTICE 2021 Exploratory Workshop on Austerdalsbreen" was held with over 20 participants. The workshop focus was on fieldwork on the outlet glacier Austerdalsbreen, and detailed measurements were made with differential GPS, radar, albedometer and drone. In addition, three international researchers were invited to explore synergy effects and investigate the consequences of glacier melting on the Jostedalsbreen Ice Cap ecosystem. Having many research partners conducting fieldwork together proved to be very productive and a good way to collaborate and exchange knowledge and ideas among the project participants. On 9 September, drone fieldwork and geomorphological mapping was carried out at the outlet glacier Brenndalsbreen. The preliminary results from this work were presented at the conference Nordic Branch IGS on 4 - 6 November 2021. On 16 November 2021, an input meeting was held in Olden with about 30 local participants. The purpose of these meetings was to engage in dialogue with locals about the consequences of current and future changes to the Jostedalsbreen Ice Cap. We have previously had similar input meetings in Jostedalen and Fjærland. We have also started interviewing local farmers about their relationship to glaciers and climate change. In 2021, there has been a lot of media interest in JOSTICE from regional and national printed and online newspapers, scientific online media, local and national radio, and national television. NRK, for example, joined the fieldwork at Austerdalsbreen, German TV has made a 45-minute news segment about Jostedalsbreen Ice Cap, and the Swedish newspaper Göteborgs-Posten has visited Sogndal and nearby glaciers. In addition, two exhibitions have been established about the JOSTICE project at the Norwegian Glacier Museum and the Breheimsenteret. The JOSTICE website (www.jostice.no) and JOSTICE profiles on social media has also been an active forum for disseminating activities. The annual JOSTICE planning meeting was held as a physical meeting on 4 November at NVE in Oslo. The primary purpose of the meeting was to provide status of progress, plan the work for 2022, and coordinate the interaction between various work packages in the best possible way.

Glaciers are highly sensitive to climate changes and their projected retreat is likely to impact communities and industries in the vicinity. Presently, there is urgent need for a better understanding of how glacier retreat necessitates societal transition. Our project faces these challenges by providing benchmark glaciological and hydrological investigations of Jostedalsbreen, and by linking glacier changes to regional climatic changes. These results will be used to assess societal impacts and propose climate change adaptation strategies to Norwegian communities already affected by glacier driven changes on tourism and hydropower industries. The region around Jostedalsbreen is probably the most affected region in Norway with respect to societal consequences of glacier retreat. Our project will attract significant scientific and public attention to the plight of Jostedalsbreen and the region. We will employ geophysical radar techniques tested in a recent pilot study to obtain high-quality data on ice thickness and glacier bed topography. Together with surface topography data and existing long-term meteorological and glacier mass balance data, the geophysical data will be incorporated into state-of-the-art mass balance, runoff and ice dynamic models of Jostedalsbreen. These models will predict future glacier and runoff changes and visualize the progress of thinning and retreat of Jostedalsbreen. A high-resolution regional climate model will be applied to determine the effects of changing glacier geometry on local atmospheric circulation patterns and simulate future changes in regional climate. The modeling efforts will be used to evaluate the impacts of projected glacier and climate changes on regional tourism, hydropower production and agriculture. A strong partnership between scientists and regional shareholders will secure integral research collaboration, implementation of adaptation strategies, and ensure the high-impact of the research to the general public.