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FRIHUMSAM-Fri prosj.st. hum og sam

CONMIG: Geographies of Conflict-Induced Migration

Alternative title: Konfliktmigrasjonens Geografi

Awarded: NOK 7.8 mill.

Why do some conflicts trigger significant migration while others do not? And how and where do people flee when conflict breaks out? Conflict migration is one of the most important global challenges of our time. However, research on the topic has not been able to explain the variation in the extent of conflict-related migration, aside from establishing that conflict is a significant factor. The CONMIG project employs a wide range of methods to understand how different types of violence and intensity affect migration, while also studying where, locally, migrants go to seek protection. The project unites researchers from both conflict and migration studies to examine three important limitations in the literature, strongly dominated by aggregated country-level studies. Firstly, CONMIG introduces a local research approach, by linking local event data on types of conflict and intensity with new data on local migration patterns in Africa between 2000 and 2020. Secondly, while conflict is often treated as a binary phenomenon, the project distinguishes between the effects of different types of conflict and its intensity on migration, such as distinguishing between violence between a government and a rebel group; between two rebel groups; or where civilians are attacked. Thirdly, research attempting to explain conflict migration has not satisfactorily been able to capture the possibilities for where one can flee, or whether such opportunities exist at all. CONMIG uses local data, surveys, and interviews, to analyze migration decisions, as well as the characteristics of places where people seek refuge. Qualitative mapping of individuals' migration routes is used to examine individuals' reflections on factors that have influenced their decision to migrate, and to where to migrate. Since its inception, the project has built infrastructure and conducted data collection. This has laid the foundation for further research in the project. Firstly, the CONMIG project has linked together geographical local data on conflicts with migration data. These data form the basis for quantitative geographic analyses of the effect of conflict on migration. Secondly, in June 2022, the project completed surveys in Uganda of 1,008 South Sudanese refugees about their experiences with conflict, and to what extent conflict was an important reason for the migration decision, how they traveled, and what experiences they had along the way. Thirdly, the project collected chronological qualitative audio recordings of respondents' experiences with migration routes, from their home to the refugee camp in Uganda. Fourthly, the project used qualitative participatory mapping where respondents plotted their migration route, which together gives researchers an overview of the variation in migration routes, as well as place of origin. Together, these four data innovations are used separately and together in a series of research articles that are under peer review. Findings from these articles have identified new knowledge about which experiences are important factors for migrating. In particular, the results show that conflict alone is not important, but that conflict in interaction with other drivers such as the desire for better education are important to understand why some flee. It also guides the choice of where to migrate. South Sudanese refugees have largely chosen to migrate to Uganda due to the host country's rights to education for refugees. In another study, we find that experiencing conflict along the refugee journey contributes to more complicated travels and longer journeys. We are also investigating in ongoing articles which groups are more vulnerable to violence along the journey, and which areas are riskier to travel through. Our findings will provide better knowledge of how conflict causes forced migration, as well as how and to where people flee. This will contribute to improving research-based interventions, as well as developing an early warning system that can identify vulnerable populations and areas, for example to better understand how certain groups can be protected, or information on safe refugee routes can be given to migrants. This winter, the project will hold an academic and policy-related workshop in Kampala, Uganda, together with local researchers and practitioners.

Why do some conflicts trigger migration, while others do not? Conflict-induced migration is one of the most pressing global issues of our time. However, existing literature has been largely unable to explain this phenomenon. CONMIG employs mixed-methods to understand how different forms of violence and levels of intensity affect forced migration, and where individuals are likely to flee to. Hosted at PRIO, it brings together talented scholars within both conflict and migration studies. CONMIG addresses three fundamental shortcomings in the literature, which is heavily dominated by aggregated country-level studies. First, CONMIG will introduce a sub-national research approach, by linking disaggregated data on conflict types and intensity with novel data on sub-national migration patterns for Africa between 2000 and 2015. Second, rather than ignoring the heterogeneous nature of conflict, which is often conflated to a binary phenomenon, the CONMIG project will measure the local impact of different forms and intensities of violence on displacement, separating between state-based violence (between government and a rebel group); non-state violence (between two rebel groups); and one-sided violence, where civilians are attacked by either a government or a rebel group. Third, research attempting to explain conflict-induced migration has largely failed to capture the available opportunities of where to flee, or whether such opportunities exist at all. CONMIG will use sub-national data and qualitative interviews to analyse the characteristics of locations where people seek refuge. Qualitative mapping will be used to trigger retrospective reflections on push and pull factors for individuals' decision to migrate. Our findings will provide improved knowledge about how conflict causes forced displacement and where people flee to. This will help facilitate research-based interventions to develop early-warning systems that identify populations and areas at risk.

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FRIHUMSAM-Fri prosj.st. hum og sam