Planning Clean Energy Export from Norway to Europe

The European energy system is in transition away from fossil fuels. As Norway currently exports mainly fossil fuels to Europe, it must adapt for a future in which the European demand after fossil fuels is significantly reduced. To this end, CleanExport analyzed pathways for large-scale, decarbonized energy export from Norway to Europe. Future valorization of Norway’s energy resources and infrastructure, both existing and new, will vary greatly depending on scenarios for the decarbonized European energy system. The CleanExport project has hence conducted multiple case studies with individual sensitivities using two energy system optimization models, EMPIRE and EnergyModelsX (EMX). The different case studies highlighted that significant investments in renewable electricity generation are required for future energy exports, independent of the form of exported energy. In addition, Norway is in a good position to play an important role for storing captured CO2 from hard-to-abate sectors like the steel and cement industries. Considering the export of Hydrogen from Norway, it was seen that initial export is based on natural gas reforming with CO2 capture, if natural gas is available, while long-term production is partly based on electrolysis using renewable electricity given sufficient available electricity. The work in CleanExport furthermore resulted in significant improvements of the EMPIRE model (openly available) as well as the development of a novel, flexible open-source model called EnergyModelsX (EMX) which can be used by interested parties to conduct further analyses with differing assumptions.

CleanExport prosjektet førte til betydelige oppnådde og potensielle virkninger innenfor både kunnskap om fremtidige energi eksport og utvikling av verktøy som kan brukes til å analysere endringer i energisystemet. På den ene side publiserte CleanExport vitenskapsbaserte analyser av transisjon i energisystemet og hvordan disse påvirker den norske energieksporten. Dette gir både myndigheter og partnere i prosjektet en vitenskapelig basis for å gjøre videre undersøkelser rundt hvordan Norge kan eksportere ren energi i fremtiden. Analysen hjelper beslutningstagere å forstå det overordnede generelle bildet selv om dette er uklart grunnet store usikkerheter om den fremtidige utviklingen av energisystemet i Europa. Prosjektet gav også en forbedret forståelse av samspillet mellom de forskjellige energibærerne Norge kan eksportere. På den andre side blir modelleringsarbeid fra CleanExport allerede brukt utenfor prosjektet, og dette viser både aktualiteten og brukervennligheten til modellen utviklet. Den nye versjonen av EMPIRE modellen blir brukt i videre analyser av transisjonen av det europeiske energisystemet, mens den nyutviklet EnergyModelsX (EMX) rammeverket blir brukt i flere prosjekter i SINTEF fra dekarbonisering av arktisk strøk til analyse av fleksibilitet i industrien. I tillegg blir rammeverket evaluert av partnere i prosjektet til å bruke rammeverket internt, og det gjennomføres allerede tester i operasjonelle miljøer. Begge to modeller kan også anses som basis i den nye FME InterPlay som setter søkelys på interaksjonen av energibærer, inkludering av biodiversitet i energisystemanalyse og transisjonen i det norske energisystemet.

The energy system is currently undergoing a dramatic transition. Climate change mitigation requires a carbon constrained energy with renewable energy and other low emission energy carriers playing an increasingly important part. This transition is especially important for Norway whose industry and exports rely heavily on fossil fuels. In order to maintain its position as an energy-exporting nation, it is important to analyse how Norwegian energy export can be decarbonised and what the best route to said decarbonised energy export is. Furthermore, as different energy carriers in the energy system become increasingly connected, an analysis of the complete energy system is required. CleanExport will analyse both how Norway can maintain a position as an energy-exporting nation in a decarbonised energy system, and how to exploit synergies between the Norway's available energy resources. A novel, open and integrated modelling framework will be developed by combining and tailoring existing modelling tools for the integration of natural gas with carbon capture, hydrogen, hydropower and wind power. The new framework will provide analysis of interactions and complementaries between these different energy carriers, and enable investment analysis on how different scenarios affect the best solution to decarbonised Norwegian energy export. A central part of the project will therefore be to identify the role that different energy sources and conversion technologies will play in the forthcoming years. The multi-disciplinarity of the project will be assured by putting together the expertise of the SINTEF Energy Research, SINTEF Industry, and NTNU, together with close industrial collaboration with Equinor, Gassco, Total, Agder Energi, and Air Liquide.