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SFI-Sentre for forskn.drevet innov

Climate Futures

Alternative title: Climate Futures

Awarded: NOK 96.0 mill.

Climate risk is a term that describes our society's challenges and opportunities related to changes in weather and climate. A typical negative risk is an increased exposure to extreme weather events such as flooding, drought and storm surge. On the positive side, a warming trend can lead to a climate that is more suitable for agriculture. A common denominator for negative and positive climate risk is that the Norwegian society is inadequately adapted to both. Considerable knowledge gaps exist in both the private and the public sector. Climate Futures is a collaboration to develop new tools and services to make us more resilient to a changing climate. Our focus is on climate prediction from ten days to ten years into the future, and not least on integrating such predictions into decision making. The project has four innovation areas: sustainable food production, renewable energy, resilient societies, and smart shipping. For food producers, tools for integrating long-term forecasts of weather in agriculture and the aquaculture industry are being developed. For agricultural producers, climate forecasts are developed on both a short and long time scales to prevent crop failures, evaluate the impact of weather and climate on supply and demand, and on storage. We are linking the production of different cultures, e.g. potatoes and onions, with weather patterns over the season to examine the extent to which we can predict production. We are also creating targeted forecasts for e.g. when the frost comes in the autumn in different parts of the country and the probability of droughts during the growing season. On longer time scales, climate forecasts are used together with genetics to develop the potato of the future based on expected changes in weather and climate conditions in Norway. In aquaculture, we have conducted studies on forecasts of algae blooms and sea temperatures several weeks ahead. Algal blooms are harmful to aquaculture production, and better forecasts of favorable conditions for this is desirable in order to implement preventive measures. In renewable energy, we have conducted pilot studies to evaluate available monthly, seasonal and decadal forecasts for temperature and precipitation in Norway and Northern Europe. Post-processing the forecasts using statistical modeling and machine learning can lead to significantly better forecasts at a catchment scale. A pilot study focusing on the power market shows potential for predicting regional demand and power consumption several months ahead. In Resilient Societies we particularly address four societal areas with room for development: (i) risk pricing in the insurance market: How does climate change affect particularly vulnerable areas in Norway? Can we use climate forecasts for pricing in a better and more meaningful way than is the practice today? And how can we improve damage prevention in terms of ongoing and expected climate change? (ii) evaluation of climate risk and development of strategies and methods that can quantify changes, and (iii) climate perception and how information about climate can and should be handled at different administrative levels of society, and (iv) development of services for transport in the coastal zone related to wind. Our overarching ambition is to strengthen society's ability to address and navigate a dynamic and complex climate landscape. In smart shipping, we work on projects primarily related to modeling and to better understand the connection between fuel consumption of a ship and the weather conditions in which it sails as a function of time of year and sailing route. Another factor that affects fuel consumption and emissions is fouling of hulls. An ongoing study looks at the connection between fouling and sea temperature and length of stay in port, with the aim of being able to flag ships that need follow-up and maintenance (e.g. hull washing) to reduce future energy consumption and emissions. Transport of goods from ports is weather dependent. In one study, we look at the connection between rain in South America and water levels in rivers where ships sail, which in turn will have an impact on how much cargo can be taken on board. With local precipitation forecasts, transport can be planned better. In addition to projects within the specific innovation areas, models and methods are developed to improve climate forecasts and to make information from the forecasts understandable, accessible, and adapted to the users so that these can be more easily used in decision-making. Climate Futures is led by NORCE and involves nearly 40 partners. The research is focused on relevance and is organized in interdisciplinary and intersectoral projects, from short pilot studies to larger research initiatives over several years. Beyond scientific advances, the centre aims to grow an industry-oriented cluster of organizations aiming to prepare for future weather and climate developments.

Climate Futures is a new and ambitious action to generate long-term cooperation between companies, public organizations and research groups across sectors and disciplines to tackle one of the most urgent challenges of our time: The changing nature of weather and climate poses a severe threat to the prosperity and well-being of our economy and society as a whole, but climate risk is inadequately managed due to knowledge gaps and deficiencies in the decision-making processes of businesses and public authorities. We will address this critical challenge by working with a large group of partners to co-develop better methods and practices for climate risk management. The breadth and commitment of our consortium testify to an indisputable need for a large and cross-sectoral centre for addressing climate risks. It unites world-leading weather and climate scientists, economists and statisticians with industrial sectors – food production, energy, shipping, insurance, management consulting and risk management – and public authorities, including all the county governors in Norway. Together, we will expand established collaborations and ongoing initiatives to create an active industry-oriented research cluster. The work in Climate Futures will be organized in user-driven projects, ranging from short pilots lasting a few weeks or months to long-term strategic programmes over several years. Such a project-based structure was chosen to ensure that each partner takes an active role in the implementation and performance of the centre’s activities, and to ensure cooperation between the partner organizations across sectors and disciplines. The partners in Climate Futures will benefit from extended networks, enhanced knowledge, and new opportunities for innovation, all strengthening their positions in a globalized economy that increasingly requires sophisticated climate risk management.

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SFI-Sentre for forskn.drevet innov

Thematic Areas and Topics

InternasjonaliseringInternasjonalt vertskapPortefølje Landbasert mat, miljø og bioressurserAnvendt forskningPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderEnergi - Politikk og forvaltningInternasjonaliseringInternasjonalt prosjektsamarbeidPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderMiljø, klima og naturforvaltningPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderKommunal-, distrikt- og regionalforvaltningLTP2 HavGrunnforskningKlimaKlimaeffekter og klimatilpasningerLTP2 IKT og digital transformasjonLTP2 Miljøvennlig energi og lavutslippsløsningerLTP2 Muliggjørende og industrielle teknologierLTP2 Fagmiljøer og talenterPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderNæring og handelBransjer og næringerFNs BærekraftsmålMål 13 Stoppe klimaendringeneFNs BærekraftsmålMål 9 Innovasjon og infrastrukturTjenesterettet FoUDigitalisering og bruk av IKTLTP2 Innovasjon i stat og kommuneIKT forskningsområdeBransjer og næringerIKT-næringenPortefølje Klima- og polarforskningPortefølje Muliggjørende teknologierMiljøvennlig energiFornybar energi, vannLandbrukSamfunnssikkerhetLTP2 Rettede internasjonaliseringstiltakFNs BærekraftsmålLTP2 Utvikle fagmiljøer av fremragende kvalitetLTP2 Samfunnsikkerhet, sårbarhet og konfliktKlimaKlimasystemet og klimaendringerLTP2 Samfunnssikkerhet og samhørighetBransjer og næringerEnergi - NæringsområdeKlimaGlobale klimautfordringerInternasjonaliseringMiljøvennlig energiLTP2 Havteknologi og maritim innovasjonPortefølje Energi, transport og lavutslippIKT forskningsområdeMenneske, samfunn og teknologiDigitalisering og bruk av IKTPrivat sektorPortefølje HavBransjer og næringerFinans og bankBransjer og næringerFiskeri og havbrukFornyelse og innovasjon i offentlig sektorPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderKlimaLTP2 Et kunnskapsintensivt næringsliv i hele landetPortefølje Demokrati, styring og fornyelsePortefølje Humaniora og samfunnsvitenskapPortefølje Naturvitenskap og teknologiLTP2 Klima, polar og miljøPortefølje Industri og tjenestenæringerDigitalisering og bruk av IKTOffentlig sektorFornyelse og innovasjon i offentlig sektorInnovasjonsprosjekter og prosjekter med forpliktende brukermedvirkningPolitikk- og forvaltningsområderDigitaliseringIKT forskningsområdeKunstig intelligens, maskinlæring og dataanalyseLandbrukPlanterIKT forskningsområdeVisualisering og brukergrensesnittLTP2 Styrket konkurransekraft og innovasjonsevneFornyelse og innovasjon i offentlig sektorForskning for fornyelse av offentlig sektorMaritimMaritimMaritime muligheter i havnæringeneDelportefølje Klima og miljøLTP2 Klima, miljø og miljøvennlig energiBransjer og næringerLandbruk