Climate Futures

Climate Futures is strengthening societie’s ability to navigate an increasing climate risk. We have especially developed quality and use of climate predictions extending from ten days to ten years into the futures. We are working withing four thematic areas: sustainable food production (agriculture and aquaculture), renewable energy, resilient societies and smart shipping. The partners are NORCE, the University of Bergen, the Norwegian School of Economics, SNF, the Nansen Centre, Statistics Norway, the Norwegian Computing Center, Å Energi, Eviny, Statkraft, Småkraft, the Institute for Marine Research, the County Governors, Vestland and Rogaland county councils, G2Ocean, Western Bulk, Gartnerhallen, Graminor, Norsk landbruksådgiving, the Norwegian Farmers' Association, the Norwegian Environment Agency, Tryg forsikring, KLP, Safetec, Eide fjordbruk and Clarify. For food producers, we are developing tools for the integration of climate and weather forecasting in agriculture and aquaculture. In agriculture, we have developed models for forecasting the production volume of different crops using long term weather forecasts. The goal is among other to increase the fraction of seasonal norwegian fruit and vegetable available in the stores by better forecasting the expected available production. On longer time scales, climate forecasting is used together with genetics to develop the potato of the future based on expected changes in weather and climate conditions in Norway. Within aquaculture, we have developed models for predicting algae blooms and the evolution of ocean temperatures several weeks into the future. The latter forecast is now operationally available in the Clarify tool. In addition, we are working on forecasting marine heatwaves affecting both fish stocks and salmon lice along the Norwegian coas. Within renewable energy, we have carried out studies to evaluate already available monthly, seasonal and decadal forecasts of temperature and precipitation in Norway and Northern Europe, as well as in South America. We also have ongoing studies of how the production of offshore wind can vary over longer time scales due to changes in weather patterns, where we should place future offshore wind farms based on different criteria, and how different types of renewable energy production can be combined to have a stable energy supply. In Resilient societies we ask important questions, such as: Can we use climate forecasts to price insurance in a better and more meaningful way than is the practice today? And can we improve damage prevention with regard to ongoing and expected climate change? Are insurance customers willing to pay for insurance products that secure them against climate risk? How can (and should) information about climate be handled at different administrative levels of society? Our overall ambition is to strengthen society's ability to navigate a dynamic and complex climatic landscape. In light of extreme weather Hans, we are also working on using long term weather forecasts in preparedness. Within smart shipping, we work to model and better understand the connection between the energy consumption of a ship and the weather conditions it sails in. One factor that affects energy consumption and emissions is fouling of the hull: the growth of shells, seaweed and other organic material. One of the purposes is to be able to predict which ships need follow-up and maintenance (for example hull cleaning) in order to reduce energy consumption and emissions. Furthermore, the transport of goods from ports depends on the weather. We are investigating the possibility for predicting the waiting time for loading in ports based on long term weather forecasts, and predicting water levels in the rivers where the ships sail, which in turn will have an impact on how much cargo can be taken on board. We have also developed a prediction model for expected waiting time in the panama canal. In addition to projects within the specific areas of innovation, prediction models and methods are developed to improve forecasts, and not least to make the information in the forecasts understandable, accessible and adapted to users. Long-term work with focus groups in agriculture has given us invaluable information about how the forecasts are perceived, and how long it takes for a recipient to get used to understand long-term forecasts versus regular weather forecasts for a few days ahead. This information is used, among other things, in the development of the 21-day forecast which has been launched on Yr, with it’s 15 million users every week. Our dissemination activity is high. On klimavarsling.no, where we disseminate forecasts, we had around 45,000 page views this year. The forecasts have also attracted a lot of interest from the media and have led to a number of interviews in the daily press. A series of master students have already graduated, and many more in the process. The same is the case for PhD students.

Climate Futures is a new and ambitious action to generate long-term cooperation between companies, public organizations and research groups across sectors and disciplines to tackle one of the most urgent challenges of our time: The changing nature of weather and climate poses a severe threat to the prosperity and well-being of our economy and society as a whole, but climate risk is inadequately managed due to knowledge gaps and deficiencies in the decision-making processes of businesses and public authorities. We will address this critical challenge by working with a large group of partners to co-develop better methods and practices for climate risk management. The breadth and commitment of our consortium testify to an indisputable need for a large and cross-sectoral centre for addressing climate risks. It unites world-leading weather and climate scientists, economists and statisticians with industrial sectors – food production, energy, shipping, insurance, management consulting and risk management – and public authorities, including all the county governors in Norway. Together, we will expand established collaborations and ongoing initiatives to create an active industry-oriented research cluster. The work in Climate Futures will be organized in user-driven projects, ranging from short pilots lasting a few weeks or months to long-term strategic programmes over several years. Such a project-based structure was chosen to ensure that each partner takes an active role in the implementation and performance of the centre’s activities, and to ensure cooperation between the partner organizations across sectors and disciplines. The partners in Climate Futures will benefit from extended networks, enhanced knowledge, and new opportunities for innovation, all strengthening their positions in a globalized economy that increasingly requires sophisticated climate risk management.