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HAVBRUK2-Stort program for havbruksforskning

Optimal risk based short term decision making for aquaculture.

Alternative title: Optimal risikobasert operativ beslutningsstøtte for havbruk

Awarded: NOK 3.7 mill.

Project main objective is to develop a powerful tool for operative decision support in aquaculture, based on precise data collection and artificial intelligence combined with stochastic modelling and mathematical optimization expertise. The tool will process and systematize large amounts of data and give recommendations on actions that gives the overall best production result. Salmon farming is characterized by significant dynamics and complexity. Operational planning in modern fish farming requires handling considerable amounts of information describing the fish population with individual count, size growth rate and health condition, environmental conditions, operational conditions, market and logistic conditions. Large amounts of data are generated with a high potential value if connected and processed in the right manner. However, until now there has not been developed any specific tool targeting this purpose. Norwegian salmon aquaculture's production equate to 17 million meals of salmon every day at a value close to 200 MNOK. A farmed salmon reaches its peak value towards the last part of the production cycle. During this stage it is also exposed to various risk factors and decisions are time critical, which increases the importance of a tool supporting data- and knowledge driven decisions.

Salmon farming is by its nature an operation with significant uncertainty along several axes involving a number of risk factors (sea lice, disease, low oxygen, etc) that all can have a major impact on production. Towards the end of the production cycle stock value is at the highest level. At this point fish density will normally also be high, which reduces safety margins related to environmental factors like temperature and oxygen levels. High average fish weight implies increasing physiological challenges to individual fish with corresponding increase of mortality risk, especially in relation to operations like sea lice treatment. Optimal harvest planning must bring all these elements into consideration, along with downstream dispositions like wellboat availability, harvesting capacity, market demand development. Harvest planning involves important decisions with high potential impact on profitability and are based on complex considerations. Paradoxically short term harvest planning is today performed manually supported by internally developed spreadsheets. We aim to develop a decision support tool for analyzing potential risk related to alternative operational dispositions, and for providing specific and precise support for optimal harvest planning.

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HAVBRUK2-Stort program for havbruksforskning