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FORSTERK-Forsterkningsmidler

Increasing the impact of supermodelling climate research in Norway

Awarded: NOK 0.86 mill.

The Earth is undergoing rapid climate change that is affecting society and ecosystems worldwide. Numerical models are essential to provide key information on climate change to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies and is needed by public and private sectors. This information forms the basis of the International Panel of Climate Change Assessment Reports. The ERC STERCP project has developed a super modelling technique for improved predictions of future climate. A super model combines the benefits of different models in an interactive manner to produce a model that outperforms the individual models. The concept stems from theoretical nonlinear-dynamics and relies on advanced machine learning algorithms. The STERCP super model is based on three different state-of-the-art climate models from Norway, Germany, and the United States of America. It has been used to perform range of simulations. The Research Council of Norway funded NorSuper project is increasing awareness among national and international scientists of this novel approach to climate modelling and to increase visibility of climate researchers in Norway and of the ERC funded STERCP project. A new website has been created that summarizes supermodelling in easy-to-understand language. An international workshop was held on regional climate change and a peer-reviewed paper is being prepared, where super modelling is highlighted as an alternative approach to deliver improved climate projections. Dissemination material are being prepared, including short videos and animations, and another workshop will be held on climate model errors in 2022.

The International Panel of Climate Change is preparing its sixth assessment report on climate change, and at the same time private and public sectors demand predictions of regional climate for the next few years. Climate models are essential to both. Despite great advances, climate models suffer from large systematic errors that cause large uncertainties in predictions of regional climate change on short and long timescales. The ERC STERCP project has developed a super climate model to reduce model error. A super model combines the benefits of different models in an interactive manner to outperform the individual models; and to outperform the standard approach of combining the output of independent model simulations. We have created a super model based on three different state-of-the-art climate models, and we are now refining the super model and conducting climate change simulations with it. Super modelling is a new concept that is currently developed only at the University of Bergen. The concept stems from theoretical nonlinear-dynamics and relies on advanced machine learning algorithms. NorSuper will create awareness of this concept in the non-academic world in Norway, as well as internationally. We will develop outreach material for high-school students and the lay person, but also for those who utilize climate services. The material will be available via a project website, but also through the Bjerknes Centre’s communication channels. NorSuper will increase the uptake of our super climate model data by Norwegian and International scientists through holding two workshops. These will synthesize current research on regional climate change and climate prediction. We will use these to show case the super model concept as an approach to advance these two fields. Through leading international publications on these topics we will achieve greater recognition of H2020 research conducted in Norway and increase visibility of climate researchers in Norway.

Activity:

FORSTERK-Forsterkningsmidler