Early COVID-19 wave in Norway: Social inequality in morbidity, compliance to non-pharmaceutical interventions and labour marked consequences

This project has studied the Covid-19 pandemic in Norway in 2020 and 2021 and has analyzed whether there is a connection between education and income on the one hand and compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions and health- and labor market consequences on the other. In the analyzes, we have used survey data and regression models. The project has published 8 scientific journal articles and at least 1 more will be published after the end of the project. We here present a brief summary of 4 key representative papers: Results from the first show that employees who live in low-income households to a lesser extent than those who live in high-income households have complied with infection control measures such as hand washing, keeping 1 meter distance, working at home and using less public transport. Despite the government's efforts to reduce the burden of infection control measures for broad groups in the working life, our second article shows that employees who are self-employed and work part-time have had a higher financial risk than employees in a standard employment relationship. Our third article shows that those with the poorest health and weakest connection to the labor market have been least satisfied with life during the Covid-19 pandemic. The findings show how important it is that labor market interventions during crises are particularly tailored and predictable for vulnerable groups. The fourth article has used machine learning to predict the risk of depression in 2020 and 2021. Self-perceived exposure risk, income, compliance with non-pharmaceutical measures, how often one is outdoors, contact with family and friends and work-home conflict were important predictors in both 2020 and 2021. Epidemiological factors (had covid symptoms or close contact with an infected person) affected the level of mental illness especially in 2020, while the importance of socioeconomic factors (gender, age, household type and employment status) increased significantly in 2021. The project has been led by the Work Research Institute (WRI) at OsloMet- Metropolitan University. In addition to researchers from WRI, researchers from Consumption Research Norway and the Norwegian Institute of Public Health participated.

We have published 8 journal articles. Through research and dissemination activities including the CorRisk project, PANSOC has grown in national and international recognition, attracting masters students, postdoctoral fellows and several guest scholars. A PANSOC's master's student was named "Student of the Year" at OsloMet in 2021, and another student won the award for best presentation at a student and research conference in 2021. Mamelund, was nominated for "Name of the Year in Academia" by readers of the newspaper Khrono in both 2020 (among the 3 finalists) and 2021. Mamelund also won the outreach activity prize at OsloMet in 2020. PANSOC began to organize a webinar series in spring 2021, which has had over 30 talks to date, given by international researchers with participants from most world regions. We delivered an invited report to the Corona Commission, and the two reports cites several of our op eds and also journal publications.

Pandemics like COVID-19 are one of the most pressing global threats to human life and economic security. The core idea of CorRisk is that infectious disease pandemics created by influenza or corona-viruses have always been more than just a medical problem and that their epidemiology and impact are profoundly shaped by social and economic structures. While the state of the art mainly studies medical risk factors, this project proposes to study the “forgotten” socioeconomic risk factors for unequal morbidity, compliance to the NPIs and labor market consequences. Using survey data and regression models, we ask three essential questions: 1) What is the morbidity risks among the socially and medically at risk vs. the general population? 2) What is the compliance to the NPIs among the socially and medically at risk vs. the general population, and whether and which of the NPIs (personal protection, environmental, social distancing and travel related measures) is associated with reduced morbidity for the risk groups vs. the general population? 3) Which social and employment groups will be in most need for economic austerity packages in mitigating the expected negative labour market outcomes (layoffs, losing jobs and income) of the pandemic and the NPIs? CorRisk undertakes finding socioeconomic inequalities in morbidity, NPI compliance and Labour market outcomes. This is a novel approach emphasizing the need to examine risk as a social and not just a medical phenomena. Our new methodological frame will serve future research on (re)emerging diseses. The CorRisk research group has gathered a strong interdisciplinary and international team of infectious disease and work-life researchers and key national policy-makers in the field of infectious diseases and pandemic preparedness. Findings will be pivotal for real-time current health policies; optimizing the NPIs to prevent severe pandemic outcomes by reducing social inequalities, to save lives and social & economic losses.