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BEDREHELSE-Bedre helse og livskvalitet

COVID-19 Seasonality: The effect of environmental variation on the spatio-temporal dynamics at national, regional and global scales

Alternative title: COVID-19 Seasonality: Effekten av miljøvariasjon på rom-tid dynamikken på nasjonal, regional og global skala

Awarded: NOK 5.0 mill.

COVID-19 Seasonality was a Norwegian based project with strong collaborations with leading research and response organisations in China, Iran, UK, USA, and the African Union to develop fundamental information and inform the response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The objectives were organized into three main actions: (I) Extract - to determine how the weather and seasonal factors affect the patterns of growth of the COVID-19 epidemic; (II) Predict - to use data on the weather and seasonal factors that COVID-19 to assess how epidemic will change in the future in Norway and other countries; and (III) Prepare - to evaluate the risk of future pandemics, similar to COVID-19, in Norway and other countries from new and emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). Articles relevant to all three objectives have been published as outcomes of the scientific work and collaborations of COVID-19 Seasonality. COVID-19 Seasonality has produced quantitative models to forecast the seasonal conditions in Norway and other countries that favor and hinder the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, improving predictions of epidemic trends.COVID-19 Seasonality then applied basic research approaches and the obtained insights to an improved understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19, and the effect of existing or potential interventions, during the pandemic. Collectively, this work contributed profoundly to improving the preparedness against future diseases in Norway as well as globally. The project fostered strong dialogue with both national and international partners and has helped develop new lines of research that are still being explored.

The PI is currently in dialog with American scientists developing joint projects under the umbrella of the Norwegian-US collaborative agreement (the Norwegian Ministry for Research and Higher Education and the US Department of Energy) on the use of artificial intelligence: specifically we will develop a digital twin model helping us avoiding local epidemics becoming global pandemics.

COVID-19 Seasonality is a Norwegian based project with strong collaborations with leading research and response organisations in China, Iran, UK, USA, and the African Union to develop fundamental information and inform the response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The objectives are organized into three Work Packages (WP) to (I) Extract the functional response of SARS-CoV-2 to environmental factors (including weather/seasonal variation) from variations in the growth rate of the COVID-19 pandemic; to (II) Predict the near term and long term seasonality and age-specific burden of infection of COVID-19 in Norway and other countries; and to (III) Prepare Norway (and other countries) for future pandemics by assessing the potential speed and intensity with which new emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) will arrive from geographic high-risk regions. Early in the project, we will produce quantitative models to forecast the seasonal conditions in Norway and other countries that favour and hinder the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, improving predictions of epidemic trends. We will continue to improve and iterate on these models throughout the project. In addition to the quantitative models, we will produce three high-quality novel datasets: (1) a dataset of the timing and spatial extent of various control measures, testing regimes and hospital patient overflows, (2) a dataset of global hotspots of human-wildlife interactions sourced from grey and published literature, and (3) a spatial database with a probabilistic assessment of the speed and intensity with which future viral spillovers are expected to arrive. We will through COVID-19 Seasonality carry out basic research and apply the obtained insights to one of the biggest challenges of our time. We expect that improved understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic will contribute profoundly to improve the preparedness against future diseases in Norway as well as globally.

Publications from Cristin

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BEDREHELSE-Bedre helse og livskvalitet