China in the Arctic: External Influence on Regional Governance (ArcGov)

The impacts of climate change in the Arctic include melting sea ice, coastal erosion, and changes in the social structures of Arctic communities. New governance structures have been established, and existing mechanisms have been rejuvenated to tackle the region’s major challenges and needs. To understand how society is adapting to the rapid changes in the Arctic, we need to understand the dynamics that exist within established Arctic governance institutions and mechanisms. With Arctic issues rising on the global agenda, several actors outside the Arctic have begun to express their interest in, and opinions on, how best to address Arctic issues. Of these, China is probably the most influential. China’s Arctic interests are many, ranging from economic to scientific, as well as geopolitical. Although China’s presence in the Arctic has been described, the effects of its engagement on Arctic governance has not been studied in depth. We therefore ask questions such as: What is the influence of China on specific Arctic governance mechanisms, if any? What is the impact of this influence on the same governance institutions? What implications do these findings have for Arctic governance more broadly? Major changes have taken place internationally since the project was initiated at the end of the pandemic, and which have also greatly affected governance in the Arctic. These include Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the reduction of work in the Arctic Council, the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, and a strengthening of the security-oriented debate around China's interests in the Arctic. During this period, the project has followed developments and contributed to the debate about China's interests in the Arctic. The project has been highly visible through seminars, reports, articles, and meetings with national and regional decision-makers. The project also includes an ongoing book project with the publisher Routledge. The book "China in the Arctic" is expected to be published in the second half of 2026. The project has led to capacity development at both the High North Centre and the Fridtjof Nansen Institute in the work of developing knowledge about China in the Arctic. A doctoral fellow has defended his degree as part of the project, and two additional doctoral candidates have worked closely with the project. The partners in the project experience that there is a great demand for research-based knowledge about China's interests in the High North. The partners are therefore looking for opportunities to continue research related to China's interests in the Arctic. Based on theoretical approaches from political science and management science, ArcGov has studied how a state outside the Arctic affects the effectiveness of the governance mechanisms that exist in relation to specific Arctic challenges. The project group has examined Chinese influence on, and contributions to, Arctic governance mechanisms at three levels: the international; the regional (Arctic); and the national / local (Norway). Is China - as a growing global superpower - trying to influence governance structures related to the Arctic, and if they do, how is this happening? The project has provided new knowledge that partly dispels myths about China's strong involvement in the Arctic. The project has had a policy-relevant orientation in the sense that it should bring knowledge that was useful for those who work in practice with issues related to China's interests in the Arctic. Because of this approach, the project also provides new insights into governance, regionalism and institutional effectiveness in the Arctic.

Prosjektet har i tråd med søknaden utviklet flerfaglige tilnærminger, hvor både perspektiver fra bedriftsøkonomi og statsvitenskap har vært anvendt for å studere det samme fenomenet, Kina i Arktis. Boken som er under arbeid vil være viktig for å utviklingen av denne flerfaglige tilnærmingen. Nordområdesenteret og Fridtjof Nansens Institutt har benyttet prosjektet ArcGov til å bygge ytterligere kompetanse om Kina i Arktis, og Nordområdesenteret har ansatt ytterligere en doktorgradsstipendiat med oppgave å skape ny kunnskap om aktører sitt engasjement med Kina. Prosjektet har invitert til debatt, og har opplevd en økende samfunnsrelevans gjennom prosjektperioden. I perioden har prosjektet aktivt deltatt i seminarer, forskning og debatt. Prosjektet har stått for utviklingen og gjennomføringen av et doktorgradsløp, samt veiledning av mastergradsstudenter. Prosjektet har bidratt til å styrke relasjonen mellom Nordormådesenteret ved Nord universitet og Fridtjof Nansens Institutt, samt med en rekke internasjonale partnere i blant annet Kina og USA. De internasjonale partnerne har bidratt med relevante refleksjoner til prosjektgruppen, og også bidratt med faglige bidrag under seminarer og det pågående arbeidet med den avsluttende bokleveransen I prosjektperioden har vi opplevd nær kontakt med regionale myndigheter vedrørende temaet for ArcGov, og vi opplever et ønske fra dem om videre gjensidig nyttig samarbeid og om mer forskning tilknyttet blant annet Kina i tiden som kommer.

To understand how society can best adapt to the rapid changes in the Arctic, we need to understand how the region is governed, i.e. the dynamics of Arctic governance institutions and mechanisms. New governance structures have been established, and existing mechanisms rejuvenated to tackle the region’s pressing needs. With Arctic issues rising on the global agenda, more actors located relatively remotely from northern waters have started expressing their interest in, and opinions on, how best to govern Arctic issues. Of these, China is likely the most influential in decades to come. China’s Arctic interests are multifaceted, ranging from economic to scientific, as well as geopolitical. However, although China’s presence in the Arctic has been described, the effects of its engagement on Arctic governance have not been studied in depth. We therefore ask: What, if any, are the influences of China on specific Arctic governance mechanisms? What are the effects of this influence on the same governance institutions? And what implications do these findings have for Arctic governance more broadly? Drawing on theory-based approaches from political and management science, the ArcGov project will study how a state external to the Arctic influences the effectiveness of governance mechanisms for dealing with specific challenges within that region. We will examine Chinese influence on Arctic-related governance mechanisms across three levels: the international; the regional (Arctic); and the national/local (Norway). How does China – as a rising global superpower – influence or try to influence the existing and new governance structures that shape how the Arctic states adapt to and manage rapid environmental, economic and societal change? With its clear policy-relevant orientation, this project will provide new insights into governance, regionalism and institutional effectiveness in the Arctic and beyond.