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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

A water-energy-food nexus assessment of climate change impacts on biomass and hydropower resources

Alternative title: En vann-energi-mat evaluering av klimaeffekter på jordbruk, skogbruk og vannkraft

Awarded: NOK 12.0 mill.

Project Number:

314608

Application Type:

Project Period:

2021 - 2025

Funding received from:

Partner countries:

With climate change, temperature and precipitation is expected to increase in magnitude and variation in Norway. This will affect snowmelt and glacial melt, which can affect river flows in spring and summer, that can affect different ecosystem services. With climate change, it is expected that hydropower will become increasingly important as balancing factor for changing energy supply and demand. Changes in climate, land use and hydropower along with direct effects of climate change will affect water systems in many ways that are not well understood. In the WatNex project, we will analyse impacts of climate change on hydropower, forestry and agricultural sectors on water systems. We will develop systematic understanding of the sectorial interaction and develop methods to assess changes in climate and water resources and analyze responses and adaptation options of various sectors. The modelling work and approaches is developed around two cases in Norway located (Otta and Lærdal river basins). In 2022, the project worked on Otta river basin in particular, and in 2023 the work started in Lærdal with a visit and discussions with various stakeholders. The CWatM model was further developed to better include reservoirs and glaciers which improved the model simulations. We also worked on how to include land use and climate change scenarios in the model work.

Climate change affects hydrology, water balance and water management in river basins. In the WatNEX project, we will improve quality of input data (climate, land use), sectorial hydrological processes understanding and modelling (energy, forestry, agriculture), and model coupling for an integrated assessment of climate, hydropower, forestry and agriculture at river basin scale. The main objective is to develop methods to assess climate change impacts on water resources considering “in parallel” changes and feedbacks accruing in energy and biomass sectors. We will work on Water-Energy-Food Nexus system understanding in Norway, and assess impacts of climate change and future scenarios considering SSPs and stakeholder information. The modelling work and approaches will be developed around two cases in Norway located in dry regions with high water demand for agriculture and long tradition in irrigation (Otta and Lærdal river basins with annual precipitation about 300 mm). The model work will benefit from forest and agricultural pilot sites in Norway where long term data is available. WatNEX will advance the knowledge on future climate by improved downscaling of precipitation and temperature and estimation of evapotranspiration. We will considerably improve climate impact modelling in river basins, models used in forest hydrology and agrohydrology including irrigation scheduling and river floodplain interactions. The modelling will provide tools to assess climate change effects on sectors separately and jointly in a Climate-WEF coupling. We advance the knowledge on climate change impacts on hydrology, future water supply and demand in river basins, water management modelling considering also cost efficiency (hydro-economic modelling). We will use the results for upscaling, generalization and to provide recommendation for different sectors and for the environment considering climate, biomass and water related policies and development goals.

Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima