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FRIMEDBIO-Fri prosj.st. med.,helse,biol

PREDICT: Increasing the extent, transparency, and impact of predictions of population dynamics.

Alternative title: PREDICT: forbedrer pålitelighet, gjennomsiktighet og innvirkning til prediksjonene av biologisk endring

Awarded: NOK 3.8 mill.

We are currently experiencing rapid climate change alongside a heavily human impacted landscape. How animal and plant populations will respond to these changes is still an open question. Predicting these responses is a key step required to help us manage and protect our natural environment. Despite big advances in our ability to create predictive models, there has not been as much advance in the way we account for and communicate the associated uncertainty of these models. This can undermine trust in science and limit the usefulness of predictions if we feel we cannot rely on them. PREDICT aims to improve our understanding of how natural populations will respond to future changes by improving the way in which we make predictions of biological change. We will simultaneously expand the reach of population predictions across more species, a greater spatial area, and improve reliability of the methods we use to generate the predictions. We will make use of exceptional long-term studies of animal populations to identify the contributions that different sources of uncertainty make to final population predictions. We also ask; how far into the future can we predict with confidence? Using the concept of ecological forecast horizons, we will identify the point at which predictions become too uncertain or inaccurate to remain useful. As a result, we can limit our predictions to only time periods with high confidence where predictions can be most useful. Ultimately, PREDICT will advance our understanding of species responses to climatic change and how well we are able to predict them.

We are currently experiencing rapid climate change set against the backdrop of a heavily human impacted landscape. How animal and plant populations will respond to these changes remains an open question, as does how well can we predict these responses. PREDICT addresses the lack of a comprehensive global picture of population responses to climate through two aims; (1) improving the reliability of methods for using climate and population data to make predictions of future population trends, (2) producing robust and useful predictions of near-future population trends from a global sample of different species. Together these aims will create the most comprehensive consideration of future population trends to date, covering hundreds of populations and with statistically rigorous methodologies. Our proposed methods will simultaneously expand the reach and reliability of population predictions. Making predictions involves uncertainty, arising from many sources. We will make use of exceptional long-term studies of animal populations to identify the contributions that different sources of uncertainty make to final population predictions. We also ask; how far into the future we can predict with confidence? Using the concept of ecological forecast horizons, we can adjust our prediction lengths to a timespan with high accuracy and precision. Consideration of forecast horizons also allows us to explore the drivers of predictability, exploring whether being found in a particular region, belonging to a particular group of organisms or having a particular life history strategy influences how far into the future we can predict. The final task of PREDICT will use openly available data sources to generate robust predictions of near-future population trends that can be used with confidence by stakeholders and scientists. Ultimately, PREDICT will advance our understanding of species responses to climatic change and how well we are able to predict them.

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Funding scheme:

FRIMEDBIO-Fri prosj.st. med.,helse,biol

Funding Sources