Understanding and adapting to climate change is one of the greatest ongoing challenges society faces. The main purpose of the Arct-Risk project has been to develop knowledge and tools to understand and manage the effects of climate change on society's ability to protect citizens' lives and health and to maintain critical societal functions and infrastructures.
The project's starting point is the key role Arctic communities play in understanding and managing the climate adaptation challenge since the climate is changing much faster here than in other parts of the world. This means that successful strategies for assessing and managing risks in response to climate change in the Arctic will serve as an important basis for future climate adaptation in mainland Norway and other relevant parts of the world. Longyearbyen, Svalbard will serve as a "living laboratory" to study and develop approaches and methods for assessing and managing climate risk. Research activities have been carried out in close collaboration with a local user group consisting of Longyearbyen Local Government, the Governor of Svalbard, Skred AS, NVE region North, Telenor Svalbard, and Nordkapp municipality.
Main results:
- Demonstration of the use of climate prognoses and data in risk governance, where an important result has been to break down climate data into appropriate units in terms of geography and time.
- Knowledge of how changes in climate and weather affect natural hazards and thus also society in a way that has made the knowledge applicable to decision-makers and planners.
- Awareness of uncertainty in risk governance related to climate change through the identification of various sources of uncertainty in handling natural hazards in Longyearbyen, and descriptions of how these uncertainties can be managed and communicated.
- Development of a model and checklist for assessing uncertainty in avalanche forecasting that makes forecasters aware of the strength of knowledge in the forecast, so that further investigations to reduce uncertainty can be made if necessary. The method for uncertainty assessment is based on an evaluation of avalanche forecasting in Longyearbyen.
- Identification of uncertainty related to the development of safety measures in the process of establishing avalanche mitigation measures in Vannledningsdalen, related to both the planning process and the design. The study shows a need for awareness of uncertainty in various processes, as well as an inclusive approach to managing and communicating uncertainty.
- Explanation of the importance of local knowledge in avalanche warning systems, and an understanding of various dimensions of local knowledge.
- Explanation of the importance of considering tacit and relational knowledge in public procurement such as avalanche warning services.
- Understanding how shared risk understanding in evacuation situations can contribute to better evacuation as a risk management measure against acute natural hazards. Especially related to how different actors can communicate more effectively in evacuation situations through shared risk understanding.
- Description of how sensor technology can be used as part of systems for natural hazard warning such as avalanche warning through documented experiences on the development and use of sensor systems in Longyearbyen. In addition, a risk-based discussion on the suitability of sensor-based warning systems compared to permanent physical measures.
- Understanding how municipalities can adapt to rapidly changing climate conditions through a combination of short-term preparedness and long-term planning, including managing uncertainty and continuously updating risk and vulnerability analyses.
- Development of a climate adaptation indicator for awareness, evaluation, and follow-up of climate adaptation work at the local level.
5 learning points from Arct-Risk for future climate adaptation in Norwegian society:
1.Climate prognoses and data must be broken down into appropriate time and geographical units to make them applicable in risk assessments and planning work.
2. Methods for identifying and managing uncertainty will improve climate adaptation work and the handling of natural hazard events.
3. Application of local knowledge in various parts of climate adaptation and in systems for handling natural hazard events will provide better risk understanding and thus a better basis for decision-making.
4. Use of sensor technology in warning systems to handle natural hazards and climate change as a flexible and low-cost solution.
5. Use of climate adaptation indicators at the municipal level for awareness and follow-up of systematic climate adaptation work.
Read more: www.ntnu.edu/iot/arct-risk
Prosjektet har demonstrert tverrfaglig forskning i tett samarbeid med brukere gjennom en metode inspirert av aksjonsforskning, som deltakerne har brukt i nye prosjektsøknader
Prosjektet har etablert et nettverk av forskere, brukere og andre interessenter som vil være nyttig i fremtidige forskningsprosjekter om klimaendringer og samfunnssikkerhet samt være nyttig for praktikere innen området.
Prosjektet har bidratt med å tette forskningsgap knyttet til:
- Samfunnsvitenskaplig og tverrfaglig forskning om klimatilpasning og naturfarehendelser
- Forskning om lokal kunnskaps betydning som en del av kunnskapsgrunnlag i risikosamstyring knyttet til klimarisiko
- Forskning på usikkerhetsidentifisering og -håndtering i risikosamstyring
- Forskning om midlertidige klimatilpasninstiltak bl.a. basert på sensorteknologi
- Forskning om klimaendringer og -tilpasning i en Arktisk kontekst.
I tillegg er det en rekke samfunnseffekter fra prosjektet:
- En av samarbeidspartnere i Arct-Risk, Skred AS, bruker usikkerhetsjekkliste for skredvarsling som er utviklet i samarbeid mellom forskergruppa og Skred AS som et bakgrunnsdokument når de gjennomfører skredvarsling.
- Longyearbyen Lokalstyre har fått økt bevissthet om status for klimatilpasningsarbeidet gjennom vårt samarbeid om utvikling av klimatilpasningsindikatorer
- Prosjektet arrangerte, sammen med Longyearbyen Lokalstyre, en «klimakafé» 6.juni 2023 med god deltakelse fra Longyearbyens befolkning. Hensikten med møteplassen var å dele kunnskap om klimaendringer og - tilpasning
- Formidling av kunnskap om klimaendringer på Svalbard til ulike interessenter, samt tilgjengeliggjøring av denne kunnskapen gjennom opptak av webinar, podkastepisoder og brukervennlig rapport.
- Generell bevisstgjøring om usikkerhet i risikosamstyring i prosjektets brukergruppe og gjennom ulike formidlinger av hva usikkerhet kan være og hvordan det kan håndteres i skredvarsling/-sikring i ulike fora.
- En av prosjektmedlemmene har vært medforfatter til et kapittel om Svalbard i ny «Klima i Norge rapport» som blir publisert av NVE i 2025.
- Prosjektet har bidratt med klimadata til Sysselmesteren på Svalbards ROS-analyse 2022.
- Prosjektmedlemmer deltok i gjennomføring av i Store Norskes klimarisikovurdering 2022, inkludert utvikling av klimaendrings scenarier basert på vår kunnskap om klimaprognoser og -data.
- Utdanning av morgendagens eksperter: anvendelse av forskningsresultater i masterkurs ved Arctic Safety Centre, UNIS. I tillegg er 12 masteroppgaver (utført av 17 studenter) skrevet tilknyttet ArctRisk
- ArctRisk er i Stortingsmelding Nr.26 (2023-24), «Svalbardmeldingen», beskrevet som et godt eksempel på et forskningsprosjekt i Longyearbyen og ved UNIS med direkte relevans for Svalbard, og der resultatene er blitt tatt i bruk lokalt
Det er identifisert fem læringspunkter for fremtidig arbeid med klimatilpasning (se pop.vitenskaplig sammendrag)
Understanding and adapting to climate change is one of the greatest ongoing societal challenges. The starting point of the project is the key role the Arctic plays in understanding and mitigating this challenge, as the climate already is changing more rapidly in these regions than anywhere else in the world. This means successful risk governance strategies developed in response to destabilized climate conditions in Arctic locations can serve as a source of early warning frameworks for climate change adaptation in mainland Norway and other relevant parts of the world. Longyearbyen, Svalbard will be used as a "living lab" to study and develop approaches to risk governance that will reduce systemic risks i.e. risks related to a combination of climate change, natural hazards and rippling effects on citizens, infrastructure and societal functions. The primary objective is to develop knowledge and tools to make sense of and deal with effects of climate change on society’s ability to protect the life and health of its citizens and to maintain critical infrastructure and function. To achieve the project's objectives a transdisciplinary approach involving perspectives from technology, safety science, natural science and social science is applied. The methodology is based on case studies and action research in Longyearbyen which encompass combinations of different research methods. The research group will collaborate closely with local stakeholders in Longyearbyen to achieve to objectives of the project. The most important R&D challenges addressed are: 1) to improve and integrate fragmented steps in risk governance; 2) to demonstrate how to assess and manage uncertainties associated with climate-related systemic risk governance; 3) to make sense of how real-time data, expert knowledge and local knowledge can be combined to control natural hazards; 4) to assess effective strategies for climate change adaptation; 5) demonstrate transferability and innovation of project results
