Consequences of fundamental changes in risk regulation

The Consequences of fundamental changes in risk regulation (RISKY) project studied the implications of transitioning to an uncertainty-based risk conceptualization. In 2015, the Petroleum Safety Authority Norway changed the definition of risk underlying their regulation, now emphasizing uncertainty as a core component of risk. From previously viewing risk as the product of probability and consequence, risk is now defined as: "the consequences of the activities, with associated uncertainties" This shift corresponded with a changed risk focus in key standards such as ISO31000 and a trend in the scientific community where risk analysis has been criticized for downplaying the role of uncertainty and the knowledge underpinning the numbers used in risk analyses. To discover the implications of these changes the project conducted document studies, and interviews with relevant parties, mainly in Norway, but also internationally. The petroleum industry was the main focus of this project, but other industries including nuclear power, aviation, maritime, health care, and aqua culture have been included. The RISKY project was led by NTNU Social Research (NTNU Samfunnsforskning AS), with the research partners University of Stavanger, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, RMIT, and SINTEF. The project period was 2021-2024. The primary objective of RISKY was to improve risk governance and risk management through an increased understanding of the development and consequences of the uncertainty-based risk concept. The project also included three secondary objectives: • Exploring how the general risk discourse has developed, and how it led to the shift in how risk is defined. • Exploring how the shift in risk definitions, interpretations and implementations in Norwegian petroleum compares to other countries and other industries, and how these aspects of risk have moved across borders and sectors. • Exploring how the risk concept has been implemented and is evolving in Norway, looking at petroleum companies, the governance of the petroleum industry, and non-governmental standardization and auditing.

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The RISKY project will study the implications for practice from the transition to the uncertainty-based conceptualization of risk. Risk regulation, as a means to prevent major accidents, has undergone a fundamental change the last five years. In 2015, the Petroleum Safety Authority Norway changed the definition of risk underlying their regulation, now emphasizing uncertainty as a core component of risk. From?previously viewing?risk?as the product of probabilities and consequences, risk?is?now?defined as “the consequences of the activities, with associated uncertainties”. This shift corresponds with a changed risk focus in ISO31000 and a trend in the scientific community where risk analysis has been criticized for downplaying the role of uncertainty and the knowledge underpinning the?numbers used in risk analyses.? The RISKY project will develop theoretical, empirical and methodological knowledge using document studies and interviews. The primary objective of RISKY is to improve risk governance and risk management through an organizational qualitative study of the development and consequences of the uncertainty-based risk concept. The project also includes three secondary objectives: - Exploring how the general risk discourse has developed, and how it led to the fundamental shift in how risk is defined. - Exploring how the shift in risk definitions, interpretations and implementations in Norwegian petroleum compares to other countries and other industries, and how these aspects of risk have moved across borders and sectors. - Exploring how the risk concept has been implemented in Norway, looking at petroleum companies, the governance of the petroleum industry, and non-governmental standardization and auditing. The objectives of this project will be completed through five work packages (WPs) on the general risk discourse (WP1), public governance (WP2), Risk management practices (WP3), Standardization and auditing (WP4) and international petroleum and beyond (WP5).