SPRM - Systemic Pandemic Risk Management

The Norwegian Corona Commission's third main finding states: "There is a need to develop a cross-sectoral system that captures how the risk in the different sectors affects each other mutually". In other words, that the COVID-19 strategy must rely on assessment and management of systemic risk. The Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019 by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction states bluntly: "Realizing the systemic nature of risks, and the opportunities afforded by new approaches and new concepts of risk will be the central challenge of the first half of the twenty-first century." The SPRM project, in collaboration with Kristiansand municipality, the Sørlandet hospital, the Centre for Integrated Crisis Management (CIEM) from the University of Agder and two disaster medicine centres from Sweden and Italy, has created a method and technological solutions for assessing and handling systemic pandemic risk. Systemic risk models are developed via "participatory modelling" in workshops with carefully selected experts with relevant expertise in societal sectors affected by the pandemic. The risk model is analyzed, and quality assured together with the experts. The analysis methods identify risk scenarios, risk subsystems, and find out the most potent risks. Strategies that are most effective and practical are developed against the most potent risks. The SPRM project contributed to the management of COVID-19 in Agder county. In the final phase of the project, risk models were created, and strategies against future pandemics were identified. The SPRM project received international attention, especially through the report Addressing Complex and Cross-Boundary Challenges in Government: The Value of Strategy Mapping, published by The IBM Center for the Business of Government.

The SPRM project developed systemic (i.e., holistic) risk scenarios with internal and external interdependencies, identified vicious cycles of risk, analysed their impact, and generate mitigation policies along with priorities dependent on the vicious cycles of risks that were used to improve the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Agder County. In the final validation phase in Norway, the Agder Helsefelleskap, consisting of MDs and crisis managers working in different municipalities of the Agder Region, provided the necessary domain expertise to develop preparedness strategies targeting a future pandemic in the Agder County. In the final validation phase in Sweden, the “Smittskydd och vårdhygien” department of the Region Östergötland provided the necessary domain expertise to develop preparedness strategies toward a future pandemic. The municipality of Kristiansand and the Center for Disaster Medicine and Traumatology in Sweden have adopted the SPRM method both for pandemic preparedness and other health challenges. Publications so far have been in leading international conferences in the field of disaster risk reduction and crisis management. This ensured a quick dissemination to interested paractitioners and scientists. Articles for leading international scientific journals are in preparation and are expected to appear in 2024. The report Addressing Complex and Cross-Boundary Challenges in Government: The Value of Strategy Mapping, published by The IBM Center for the Business in Government 5th January 2023, has showcased the SPRM-method and techniques, and their applications to manage the COVID-19 pandemic in the Agder County.

Traditional risk and vulnerability assessments consider the impact of risks in isolation from one another and, hence, do not take account of the interactions between risks. These interactions create a system of associated risks and outcomes, where the outcomes of risks are risks themselves and where the resulting consequences can be complex. Risks are a system where a single risk can cause a plethora of other risks, and, in particular, cause vicious cycles of risks. The challenge is urgent: the risk literature calls for substantial research and development of systemic risk assessment and mitigation. The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated this urgent need and proved Gro Harlem Brundtland’s dictum “everything is connected” to be forcefully valid to the health and care sector, and moreover that all sectors of society were impacted and impacted back on the health and care sector. The project will begin with an evaluation of the preparedness and response to Covid-19 in the Kristiansand metropolitan area. An early project outcome will be a consultancy service expected to be in high demand by the health and care sector, but also by businesses in Norway and internationally. As the project unfolds, consultancy will be enhanced by tool modules. The final outcome will be a tool allowing public sector entities, and private corporations, to conduct risk and vulnerability assessments with full consideration of the systemic inter-dependencies, and to develop preparedness and responses to a pandemic, within the health and care sector and externally with sectors affecting the health and care sector. Tool and method will be validated with partners in Norway, Italy and Sweden. SPRM will provide state of the art tools and methods to improve preparedness and response to pandemic crises within the health and care sector, but also in any public organizations and in enterprises vulnerable to economic consequences of pandemics, such as airlines, cruise lines, insurance companies, etc.