A-PLANET: Acceptable PoLicies for the optimAl balaNce between driving and activE Transport

Norway is aggressively promoting zero- and low-emissions vehicles. A high penetration of electric vehicles has positive environmental effects, but a more energy efficient car fleet may exacerbate some problems such as congestion. It can also reduce the competitiveness of public transportation, walking and cycling. Efficient policies, such as road pricing, can help strike a better balance between social costs and benefits. A-PLANET aims to address the trade-off between policy effectiveness and acceptability in search for the optimal balance. By using a mix of methods and gathering a rich set of data, the project will answer a set of research questions that will contribute to the shift to a sustainable transport system. The project connects different research environments: Transport Economic Institute (TØI), The University of Oslo (UiO) and the University Carlos III of Madrid (UC3M). In the spring of 2024, WP1 has run a large-scale field experiment to test the effect of road pricing on driving behavior and policy acceptance. We have recruited a representative sample from the Tax Authority of about 200 000 people in Oslo and neighbour towns. Researchers from TØI and UiO are analysing the data and writing dissemination articles and presentations. Together with our partners in Spain, WP2 reviewed relevant academic literature and policy documents concerning current measures in Norway and Spain. After a few data collection in Spain, researchers have conducted a pilot and a representative survey in Norway in 2023 and 2024. We focused particularly on the difference between road pricing and current tolls using an electronic questionnaire and a choice experiment. We are in the process of analysing data and write several articles and reports that will be finalized in 2024 or 2025. After evaluating different transport models for simulating the effects of different policy measures, WP3 chose the Regional Transport Model (RTM) for Oslo and Viken county. This model enables cost-benefit analysis of different policies, and the possibility of assessing how costs and benefits are distributed between groups, enabling a deeper assessment of acceptability that can complement analyses in other work packages. Such model has been used in the design of the experiment in WP1. We have submitted a scientific to a peer-reviewed journal where we also develop some political-economic theories on redistribution as a result of transport policy and political decision-making power. Researchers have actively engaged in dissemination, as evidenced in the report. One master student has written their thesis on the topic of social norms for mode choice within the A-planet project, and an international master student from the US has worked on the analysis of survey data in WP2.

A-PLANET is an interdisciplinary project that will create new knowledge and sound empirical evidence acquired by experimentation that will fill important knowledge gaps within transport, behavioral, environmental and political economics. By using a mix of methods from economics, psychology, political and data science, and gathering a rich set of different data, the project aims to answer a set of bold research questions that will contribute to the shift to a sustainable transport system. The overarching focus is to address the tradeoff between policy effectiveness and acceptability in the transport sector, in search for the optimal balance. Results from the use of a newly developed transport model will provide a valuable starting point for identifying the most promising policy options. We will then develop ad-hoc choice experiments to understand how to facilitate policy acceptability, specifically applied to the transport sector. The combination of these results will generate important new insights and enable us to map key factors influencing public acceptability and relevant heterogeneities. The project will then integrate behavioral insights (including gamification techniques) and factors associated with increased public acceptability directly in the design of new policy instruments, which will then be empirically tested through a large scale Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) in the field, both in isolation and as policy packages. By using an RCT, the gold standard of research, we will identify causal effects of policies on transport behavior. Finally, these results will be used to re-calibrate the transport model and analyze the costs and benefits of policies aiming to strike the optimal balance between efficiency and acceptability when scaled up to city level. The model results combined with sound empirical evidence from the experiments will provide a solid foundation for policy recommendations.