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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

LANDWELL: Climate-induced welfare impacts of ecosystem goods and services from agricultural and seminatural landscapes in Norway

Alternative title: LANDWELL: Klimapåførte velferdseffekter av endringer i økosystemgoder og -tjenester fra landbruks- og seminaturlige landskap i Norge

Awarded: NOK 12.0 mill.

The agricultural sector produces a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). Agriculture manages a significant portion of land, including agricultural and semi-natural landscapes. The ES from these areas include provisioning services (especially food/food security), regulating services (e.g., carbon sequestration, water regulation, and erosion control), and cultural and knowledge services (e.g., landscape aesthetics, tourism and recreation, conservation of nature and biodiversity, cultural heritage), as well as human health and well-being. Agriculture is vulnerable to changes in climate conditions, and climate change increases pressure on agricultural landscapes and the production of ES. Although climate change is expected to have some positive consequences (increased temperature/extended growing season in parts of Norway), it will also have negative effects such as extreme weather events and attacks by plant diseases and pests. LANDWELL is an interdisciplinary research project that assesses the impacts of climate change on the production of various ES and the welfare effects for people. Both ES with market prices and those without will be included in the analysis. The project conducts analyses at both national and regional levels in Norway, considering related food and tourism industries and livelihoods in selected rural communities. The main research questions are: What are key consequences of climate change for natural goods from agricultural and semi-natural landscapes in Norway?; What are welfare effects of these consequences in Norway, and how are they distributed?; What are the local economic consequences and ripple effects for industries and incomes in selected rural communities? LANDWELL is conducted in collaboration between Ruralis, NIBIO, NINA, Menon Center for Environmental and Resource Economics, and SSB (project owner). LANDWELL started on May 1, 2021, and the project's website is: https://www.ssb.no/forskning/miljo-ressurs-og-innovasjonsokonomi/landwell. In 2022, the focus was on indicators for natural goods from agriculture that can be used for scenario modeling in JORMOD. There were several internal working meetings and an international workshop (Oct. 25-28, 2022, Oslo) with 17 participants (7 international) (Task 1.1 and Task 1.2). The workshop contributed to knowledge exchange on developments in the EU and discussions on how different knowledge and experience can be used in climate- and nature-related challenges for Norwegian agriculture. Spring 2023, LANDWELL and the project VERDIBALANSE jointly organized a workshop with presentations from a report examining ES from agriculture. Spring 2023, a nationwide pilot survey was conducted on people's valuation of ES from agriculture, which will be further developed into the main survey in Landwell (2024). The project is working on method development for mapping semi-natural land in Norway (manuscript for Kart og Plan). The project has already presented the statistical modeling of fire risk in heathlands associated with agricultural land use practices (Task 1.3). This work is published in Samfunnsøkonomen Dec. 15, 2022, and methods are documented in two SSB reports (published in 2021). Scientific articles on the topic are being worked on. The project presented new data on acceptance and willingness to pay for climate taxes at the University of Oslo (WP2) in 2022. Using these data, a scientific article on the population's views on the possible impact of climate policy on agriculture and on Rural Norway was published in 2023 in the Journal of Rural Studies (level 2, Task 2.1). For the management of wilderness and climate, the project has also looked at how views on the management of wilderness, regarding the planting of climate forests on previously grazed areas, change over time. An article on this topic has been published in Climatic Change (level 1) (Task 2.1). A scientific article assessing intergenerational equality regarding the cost of agricultural-related climate measures is under peer review. A master's thesis at NMBU from 2023 conducted a meta-analysis of the valuation of non-market values in agricultural landscapes (Task 2.3). The project has published a scientific article on biodiversity costs of climate change in climate models in the International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics (Level 1, Task 3.3 and Task 4.1). In 2023, the project also examined how agriculture is indirectly affected by climate change through possible changes in the population's diet, by modeling the effects on agricultural production in JORDMOD. This work has resulted in a master's thesis at the University of Oslo, which looks at how greenhouse gas emissions change when transitioning to a more plant-based diet, and an article (under review). Abinet Aweke defended her PhD at NTNU and is employed as a postdoc on the project, with an expected start date of October 1, 2024 (after maternity leave).

The agricultural sector manages a significant part of Norwegian agricultural and seminatural landscapes providing a large amount of both market and non-market ecosystem goods and services (EG&S) for society. These landscapes and resources are also important for other sectors such as tourism, recreation and food industries and contribute to good living conditions and quality of life, especially in rural areas. Little is still known about both how climate change will affect the agricultural sector’s ability to provide EG&S from cultural and seminatural landscapes, and the overall welfare consequences of these impacts for people and for associated industries. This project aims to fill this gap. We propose a broad, interdisciplinary project, coupling social science (environmental and agricultural economics, rural sociology) with natural sciences (climatology, biology, agronomy, landscape ecology, physical geography). Our approach aims first to utilise and operationalise available research and data on physical climate change impacts on the agricultural sector and derive indicators of change of EG&S. This will form the basis for an ambitious and innovative investigation into methods and applications to reliably assess welfare impacts of projected climate change, estimating both monetary and non-monetary indicators of value on multiple geographical scales in Norway. In addition to high-quality research output, the project will generate user-relevant analyses and recommendations for efficient adaptation policies for the agricultural sector. A team of researchers from Statistics Norway (SSB), Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Ruralis, and Menon Economics will implement the project, in close cooperation with a pre-recruited reference group and an international academic advisory board.

Publications from Cristin

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Funding scheme:

KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima