God, grievance, and greed? Understanding Northern Mozambique’s new Islamist war

God, grievance and greed? Understanding Northern Mozambique's new Islamist war. The questions in the project can be summarized in the three G's in the title. What role do religion and changes play in the religious landscape? (Good). How have the rebels managed to exploit local indignation and a sense of injustice? (Grievance). How has the greedy struggle for Cabo Delgado's vast natural resources built up historical conflict lines? (Greed). The war in the province of Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique, between an Islamist militia and the authorities and their allies, has now been ongoing since 2017, negotiations or other signs that the war is coming to an end. By the end of 2023, fighting, terror and extensive human rights violations have cost at least five thousand people their lives and at times sent close to a million people fleeing their homes. By 2020, it was clear that the insurgency and terror were destabilizing the entire northern part of the country, as the authorities were losing control of the entire province. The militia forced a halt in the development of the gas deposits offshore Cabo Delgado - estimated to be one of the largest single investments in Africa ever and the solution to the problems in Mozambique's economy and development. In mid-2021, the government felt compelled to ask for international help. They made an agreement with Rwanda and SADC (Southern African Development Cooperation) to send thousands of troops. Rwanda now controls the areas around the gas investments, and the SADC troops have a slightly larger area of operation. But the foreign troops also bring their own interests and new problems. The militia leaders have pledged allegiance to IS, and use rhetoric similar to other jihadist movements, talking about establishing a caliphate and imposing sharia - but their foreign connections are many, rather than strong. It is now clear that this is a Mozambican movement where they are able to recruit new soldiers by exploiting local contradictions and frustrations. Since the beginning of the conflict, the authorities have treated the rebels as a terrorist movement and a security challenge that must be solved by military means. At the same time, they have largely ignored the many dividing lines which in the north provide fertile ground for frustration against the regime based in Maputo, 2,000 km further south. A weak understanding of the war's driving forces can, as in many other conflicts, mean that the interventions can worsen the situation - a point the project's researchers have focused on. The interdisciplinary group of researchers from Norway, Mozambique and several other countries is already contributing to increased understanding and knowledge to prevent further destabilization. Both in Mozambique and international forums, we contribute to insight into the origins of the conflict in Mozambican and local history characterized by violence, authoritarian central government, political manipulation of ethnicity, poverty and a lack of hope for the future among young people. Among other things, we look at the war's changes for women, the struggle for the large natural resources and the importance of gas deposits.

In late 2017 jihadist militants started attacking towns and villages, sometimes with shocking brutality, in Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado. They have recently sacked towns and destroyed government infrastructure – while criticising the government and pledged a fundamentalist Islamic agenda. The conflict that has taken currently the forms of an escalating war. The government response has first and foremost been bellicose and authoritarian, increasingly militarising the province of Cabo Delgado – while blaming the violence on external aggression. Since the conflict both global links and roots in local grievances, this project is designed to acquire a more comprehensive understanding of the multiple drivers of the escalating war. The title alludes to a cocktail of motives that may have turned the province into a hotbed for dangerous conflict: Religious extremism connected to a regional and global network; local grievances stemming from a sense of long-term political and economic marginalisation; and the greed and violence associated with illicit transnational flows and the poorly regulated extractive industries in Cabo Delgado. This project will be carried out by a multidisciplinary team of historians, social anthropologists and political scientists, and includes researchers based in Norway, Mozambique, and in South Africa. Each has specific competence relative to the Work Packages (WPs). WP1 will inquire into the role of and changes in the local Islamic ideology. WP2 will look into the context provided by the politics and history of conflict, war and youth protest in Mozambique. WP3 looks into the role of the extractive industries boom characterising the country and its role in amplifying the conditions for the conflict. WP4 is a PhD candidate who will focus on the battle for control of the narrative and information. WP5 is a post-doc research which will focus on the role of women in the insurgency, and the changing gender roles under the conflict.