BIA-Brukerstyrt innovasjonsarena

It is well known that consumers demand for goods and services depend on economic factors like price of the good, prices of other goods, and income. It is also well known that promotion efforts contribute to increase demand. Last, but not least, there is some knowledge on how societal conditions affect demand. For example, during the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008 the spending on luxury and investment goods was considerably more volatile than consumption of non-durable essentials. In 2020 another global crisis started; the corona pandemic. This research project aims at investigating to what degree the consumption pattern of households changed during the pandemic. We do this at two levels: 1) by the use of an econometric model on retail trade of meat and fish in 2020, 2) a panel survey among consumers in Norway, France, Germany and Italy on how they perceive the threat of the pandemic on their own health and finances, and how their willingness to pay for Norwegian fish (salmon and cod) and other goods and services (only for Norwegian consumers) is affected by the pandemic, and 3) experiments testing the use of dynamic versus static logos under the influence of mortality salience vs a control group. The panel survey is run three times, one year apart. Finally, we implemented a survey among French consumers asking about fish consumption during the pandemic in general, and about the consumption of fish from Norway in particular. Results from the econometric model shows that when the pandemic becomes more intense retail trade of most meat and fish products increase. This is as expected as canteens and restaurants more likely are closed when the pandemic becomes more intense. Our findings shows that consumers compensate (some of) the loss of consumption of fish and meat in canteens and restaurants with more home-consumption. However, given data from the Directorate of Health that the total consumption of meat and fish was reduced during the first year of the pandemic, we can state that the compensation was not total. In addition our results shows that retail trade of saithe, mutton, and frozen pork was reduced as the pandemic became more intense. Hence, consumers have replaced these products with other products in more intense periods of the pandemic. Even if the COVID-10 pandemic have affected the willingness-to-pay for fish in international markets negatively, consumers in Germany, France and Italy perceive it as safe to consume Norwegian fish, and this in tun contributes to prevent substantial decrease in willingness-to-pay for Norwegian fish products (salmon and cod). From a marketing perspective it is interesting that we are able to demonstrate that consumers prefer dynamic logos to more static. We interpret this finding as if dynamic logos are associated with life, and thus takes the attention away from death, which often prevail during a pandemic. France is the largest market for Norwegian salmon. Results from a consumer survey among a representative sample of French consumers demonstrate that those who preferred fish produced in Norway (salmon and cod) before the pandemic, either increased their belief that Norwegian fish was safe to consume, or their belief in this remained unchanged.

Results from the econometric model shows that when the pandemic becomes more intense retail trade of most meat and fish products increase. This is as expected as canteens and restaurants more likely are closed when the pandemic becomes more intense. Our findings shows that consumers compensate (some of) the loss of consumption of fish and meat in canteens and restaurants with more home-consumption. However, given data from the Directorate of Health that the total consumption of meat and fish was reduced during the first year of the pandemic, we can state that the compensation was not total. In addition our results shows that retail trade of saithe, mutton, and frozen pork was reduced as the pandemic became more intense. Hence, consumers have replaced these products with other products in more intense periods of the pandemic. Even if the COVID-10 pandemic have affected the willingness-to-pay for fish in international markets negatively, consumers in Germany, France and Italy perceive it as safe to consume Norwegian fish, and this in tun contributes to prevent substantial decrease in willingness-to-pay for Norwegian fish products (salmon and cod). From a marketing perspective it is interesting that we are able to demonstrate that consumers prefer dynamic logos to more static. We interpret this finding as if dynamic logos are associated with life, and thus takes the attention away from death, which often prevail during a pandemic. France is the largest market for Norwegian salmon. Results from a consumer survey among a representative sample of French consumers demonstrate that those who preferred fish produced in Norway (salmon and cod) before the pandemic, either increased their belief that Norwegian fish was safe to consume, or their belief in this remained unchanged.

The negative effects of the coronavirus crisis on the Norwegian economy as a whole and the Norwegian service and seafood exports industries have been significant. The restaurant, fast food as well as travel sectors experienced fall in turnover of up to 90% due to the reduced consumer spending. Also, sales in physical stores, bank branches, training centres, etc. have been negatively affected by the fallout of this unprecedented event. Furthermore, exports of Norwegian seafood fell by 8% in April 2020 relative to 2019, as a result of the coronavirus crisis. The value of exported salmon fell by 13% in April 2020 relative to 2019. On the consumer level, the coronavirus crisis triggered the phenomena of increased consumption of less healthful products and services, nationalism and materialism. Another significant consequence of the crisis is increased consumer resistance to service innovations. This fallout of the crisis presents considerable threats for companies in the Norwegian service and seafood exports industries. More importantly, due the extraordinary nature of this crisis many companies in these industries lack the necessary competence to measure and manage its effects on their operations. In order to meet these challenges and to protect and manage the strategically important for Norway industries – food, services and seafood exports, this project focuses on the development of economic analysis and market intelligence capabilities of the industry partners in the project – Virke, the Norwegian Seafood Council and their member companies. Each of the partners´ industries will be subject to case studies that will form the foundation for research in this investigation and the development of corporate capabilities.