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MARINFORSKHAV-Marine ressurser og miljø - havmiljø

Role of oceandynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere interactions in Driving cliMAte variations andfutureProjections of impact-relevant extreme events

Awarded: NOK 6.3 mill.

ROADMAP aims to expand current understanding of how the Northern Hemisphere oceans’ surface state (i.e., temperature, sea ice cover) and dynamics (i.e., water movement) influence the extratropical atmospheric circulation and associated weather and climate extreme events. The project does this across a wide range of space- and timescales, short-synoptic to decadal-planetary, under both present day and future climate conditions. Funded by the EU JPI CLIMATE and JPI OCEANS joint call on next generation climate science in Europe for Oceans, ROADMAP is led by the Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology (Germany) and brings together leading climate research institutions from seven European countries, including universities as well as weather and climate services providers. Norway participates through the Geophysical Institute (University of Bergen) and the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center. Three-years into the project, these are the findings that Norway has contributed to: • In addition to global warming, the Pacific and Atlantic multi-decadal variability jointly contribute to fluctuations in Arctic climate over the historical period, through ocean and atmospheric teleconnections (Svendsen et al. 2021) • Using long-term forced model simulation, observations and model reanalysis data, we show that a large part of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic climate can be physically explained by coupled oscillation that links stratospheric and tropospheric jets with ocean circulation (Omrani et al., 2022). • Using coordinated multi-model large ensemble simulations, we showed that the internally driven interdecadal Pacific oscillation brings a cooling trend over the western part of the Eurasian Cooling region during 1998-2013 (Suo et al., 2022). • Climate models struggle to represent the correct thermohaline anomalies along the Atlantic water pathway from the North Atlantic Ocean towards the Arctic Ocean (Langehaug et al., 2022). • Uncertainties in mid-latitude climate change were related to tropical Pacific forcing and extra-tropical air-sea interactions in the Atlantic (Cheung et al. 2022). • In joint work with other ROADMAP partners, the importance of resolving the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature front for North Atlantic climate was demonstrated (Athanasiadis et al. 2022). • We also showed the potential of decadal predictions of North Atlantic climate (Omrani et al. 2022) and key fish stock in the North Atlantic (Payne et al. 2022). • Based on a unique set of multi-model large-ensemble atmospheric simulations, we have isolated the respective contributions from the combined external radiative forcing, interdecadal Pacific variability, Atlantic multidecadal variability, and Arctic sea-ice changes to the Arctic tropospheric warming during 1979-2013 (Suo et al., 2022). • A variation in the observed mechanisms of the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the decadal shift of the Gulf Stream has been identified (Famooss Paolini et al., Submited). • Using semi-idealized atmosphere model experiments, we showed that Atlantic and Pacific mid-latitude sea surface temperature fronts jointly maintain the observed North Euro-Atlantic and Ural blocking frequency (Cheung et. al. 2023, Cheung et. al submitted). • Using atmosphere-only model experiments, we show that the tropical sea surface temperature controls the stratospheric and tropospheric response to climate change not only through planetry waves but also through diffusive mixing (Omrani et. al., under revision, Omrani et al. to be submitted). • To detect and understand the impact of the Atlantic Ocean on the surrounding regions, we performed pacemaker experiments by first constraining the simulated temperature and salinity in the Atlantic Ocean toward observed values. Our findings reveal that the salinity variability in the Norwegian Sea and towards the Arctic Ocean is improved by constraining the North Atlantic Ocean (Langehaug et al., work in progress). We also found that the North Pacific multi-decadal variability is largely improved (Suo et al., work in progress). • Using observational data, we find that around every ten years, the presence of warm (cold) anomalies in the eastern North Atlantic Subpolar oceanic gyre leads to increased surface-forced water mass transformation in light (greater) density classes (Passos et al., in revision, JCLIM. • To identify quasi-periodic climate variability, we applied a newly developed method known as Multi Variate Empirical Mode Decoposition. We developed a statistical test tailored for this method (Boljka et al. 2023) Project website: http://roadmap.rd.ciencias.ulisboa.pt/index.html#about

Funded by the JPI CLIMATE and JPI OCEANS joint call on next generation climate science in Europe for oceans, ROADMAP aims to expand current understanding of how the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ocean surface state and ocean dynamics influence the extratropical atmospheric circulation, as well as associated impact-relevant weather and climate extremes, across space and time scales, short-synoptic to decadal-planetary, under both present day and future climate conditions. ROADMAP is led by MPI for Meteorology (Germany) and its consortium encompasses leading climate research institutions from 7 European countries, including universities as well as institutions providing (national) meteorological and climate services. ROADMAP will continue a long-standing history of international collaboration between its partners within the framework of previous joined projects, making significant contributions to climate variability, predictability and response, as well as climate extremes, particularly in the North Atlantic/European sector. Within ROADMAP, UiB and NERSC are mainly involved in WP2(UiB lead)and WP3(NERSC co-lead),which address: -how and on which timescales extratropical ocean-atmosphere interactions control the tropospheric eddy-driven jets,cyclone variability (storm track),blocking events and the associated dynamical link to extreme conditions; and how such controls can be modified by global warming [WP2] -the impact of tropical El Niño Southern Oscillation and Madden Julian Oscillation SST anomalies on the mid-latitude and polar atmospheric circulation [WP3] -the multidecadal links between tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, and inter-basin connections between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans, as well as modifications of linkages under climate change conditions [WP3] -the identification of key spatial-temporal variability patterns as well as cross-scale causal coupling between different variability modes of ocean and atmosphere [WP5 jointly with WP2 and WP3].

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MARINFORSKHAV-Marine ressurser og miljø - havmiljø