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MARINFORSK-Marine ressurser og miljø

Role of oceandynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere interactions in Driving cliMAte variations andfutureProjections of impact-relevant extreme events

Awarded: NOK 6.3 mill.

Funded by the JPI CLIMATE and JPI OCEANS joint call on next generation climate science in Europe for Oceans. ROADMAP aims to expand current understanding of how the ocean influences the extratropical atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere, as well as associated impact weather and climate extremes, across space and time scales, short-synoptic to decadal-planetary, under both present day and future climate conditions. ROADMAP is led by MPI for Meteorology (Germany) and its consortium encompasses leading climate research institutions from seven European countries, including universities as well as institutions providing meteorological and climate services. Within ROADMAP, UiB and NERSC are mainly involved in workpackage 2 (WP2; UiB lead) and WP3 (NERSC co-lead), which address: ? how and on which timescales extratropical ocean-atmosphere interactions control the tropospheric eddy-driven jets, cyclone variability (storm track), blocking events and the associated dynamical link to extreme conditions; and how such controls can be modified by global warming [WP2] ? the impact of tropical El Niño Southern Oscillation and Madden Julian Oscillation on the mid-latitude and polar atmospheric circulation [WP3] ? the multidecadal links between tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, and inter-basin connections between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans, as well as modifications of linkages under climate change conditions [WP3] ? the identification of key spatial-temporal variability patterns as well as cross-scale causal coupling between different variability modes of ocean and atmosphere [WP5 jointly with WP2 and WP3]. UiB and NERSC have contributed to the following findings: We have shown that in addition to global warming, Pacific and Atlantic multi-decadal variability jointly contribute to fluctuations in Arctic climate over the historical period, through ocean and atmospheric teleconnections. Using long-term forced model simulation, we show that large part of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic climate can be physically explained by coupled oscillation that links stratospheric and tropospheric jet with ocean circulation (Omrani et. al submitted to Nature Geoscience). We have also identified co-variability between the stratosphere/troposphere and the oceanic front along the Gulf Stream in observational data on quasi-decadal timescales (work in progress). We have shown that resolving the sea surface temperature (SST) front along the Gulf Stream in ocean-atmosphere coupled models reduces strongly the error in simulating the Eddy-driven jet (Athanasiadis et at. Submitted Journal of Climate). Using semi-idealized atmosphere model experiments, we showed that both Atlantic and Pacific mid-latitude SST fronts jointly maintain the observed blocking frequency in the North Atlantic region (Cheung et. al. to paper in preparation). Using atmosphere only experiments, we show that the tropical SST controls the stratospheric response to climate change through non-conservative processes such as the diabatic heating and diffusive mixing (Omrani et. al. in preparation).

Funded by the JPI CLIMATE and JPI OCEANS joint call on next generation climate science in Europe for oceans, ROADMAP aims to expand current understanding of how the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ocean surface state and ocean dynamics influence the extratropical atmospheric circulation, as well as associated impact-relevant weather and climate extremes, across space and time scales, short-synoptic to decadal-planetary, under both present day and future climate conditions. ROADMAP is led by MPI for Meteorology (Germany) and its consortium encompasses leading climate research institutions from 7 European countries, including universities as well as institutions providing (national) meteorological and climate services. ROADMAP will continue a long-standing history of international collaboration between its partners within the framework of previous joined projects, making significant contributions to climate variability, predictability and response, as well as climate extremes, particularly in the North Atlantic/European sector. Within ROADMAP, UiB and NERSC are mainly involved in WP2(UiB lead)and WP3(NERSC co-lead),which address: -how and on which timescales extratropical ocean-atmosphere interactions control the tropospheric eddy-driven jets,cyclone variability (storm track),blocking events and the associated dynamical link to extreme conditions; and how such controls can be modified by global warming [WP2] -the impact of tropical El Niño Southern Oscillation and Madden Julian Oscillation SST anomalies on the mid-latitude and polar atmospheric circulation [WP3] -the multidecadal links between tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, and inter-basin connections between the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans, as well as modifications of linkages under climate change conditions [WP3] -the identification of key spatial-temporal variability patterns as well as cross-scale causal coupling between different variability modes of ocean and atmosphere [WP5 jointly with WP2 and WP3].

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MARINFORSK-Marine ressurser og miljø