Assessing and mitigating the effects of climate change and biological invasions on the spatial redistribution of biodiv in cold environments

ASICS (ASsessing and mitigating the effects of climate change and biological Invasions on the spatial redistribution of biodiversity in Cold environmentS) is a global network of ecologists working on biodiversity in polar and alpine areas. We bring together expertise on species, field observations, experiments, and ecological modelling to answer how global changes are affecting species redistributions in cold environments, and how this knowledge can help us halt the deterioration of these precious ecosystems. With unprecedented levels of global connectivity, the movement of species around the world has never been greater. Combined with a warming climate, alien and invasive species threaten biodiversity in even the coldest environments. We evaluate the state of polar regions under these forces and seek to improve our understanding of the factors setting the current distribution of these species. Many species have limited abilities to respond quickly to climate change, but by examining physiological limits to changes in cold climates, we can understand which species may ultimately prevail. This mechanistic understanding of species physiology provides the key to better predictions of biodiversity redistributions under different scenarios of future climate change. We also assess the effects of species movements on interactions between species and on community and ecosystem functioning. This will test the stability and/or vulnerability of cold-climate ecosystems towards global change-driven species redistributions. Our research will help us to prepare contributions to future management strategies and policy contents to tackle emerging threats for cold-climate biodiversity. In 2023, the Norwegian working group has developed bioclimatic niche models for the 27 risk assessed alien plant species in Svalbard, and they show that macro climate is not a limiting factor for establishment of these alien species in Svalbard also outside their current distribution. We have also used satellite data from 1985-2021 to study how animal husbandry in Svalbard has affected tundra greening and found that animal husbandry can stimulate tundra vegetation productivity for a long time also after sites have been abandoned. Further we have contributed to two manuscripts in collaboration with the rest of the network, one on scenarios for functional shifts in biodiversity in polar regions driven by global changes, and one on how global changes threaten the integrity of biodiversity in cold regions. We will continue to assemble our data and work on regional risk assessments, and collaborate and plan how we best can offer advice on protection and conservation of these fragile polar and alpine environments to appropriate committees and managers.

There is growing evidence that the biodiversity of cold regions is increasingly threatened by climate change and biological invasions. We aim to combine existing data with new experiments and observations from polar and alpine regions to better understand the synergisms between climate change and biological invasions on species distributions, to predict how these impacts may change in the future, and to develop mitigation measures to deal with impacts. a)We will focus on cold environments at high latitudes and elevations, as they are warming at an unprecedented rate and are becoming increasingly vulnerable to invasions under a milder climate. Cold environments are excellent sentinels for change, and can act as natural laboratories in which to study the synergisms between, and the combined effects of climate change and biological invasions. b)We will use long-term monitoring data for plants and invertebrates, including georeferenced non-native and native species records. These extensive datasets are available from consortium members (e.g. Norwegian data on invasive plant presence-absence in Svalbard and mainland Norway, and on an invasive invertebrate in Antarctica), and will be further enriched by new experimental research. We will develop new analytical tools and scientific insights, using cutting-edge modelling techniques relying on databases with an unprecedented size and scope to improve our understanding of the dynamics of native and non-native species biogeography in cold environments. Our effort will greatly improve the current knowledge of the mechanisms and factors driving the distribution and assemblages of species at local and regional scales. c)We will focus on plants and invertebrates, whose ecology, fitness and distribution are driven by the microclimatic characteristics of their habitats. By linking the distribution of plants and invertebrates, we will be able to consider and reveal the ecosystem effects of changes of their ecological interactions.