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POLARPROG-Polarforskningsprogram

Greenland ice sheet evolution and stability

Alternative title: Grønlandsisens utvikling og stabilitet

Awarded: NOK 11.2 mill.

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to sea-level rise today and is expected to continue losing mass in the future under increasing Arctic warming. Sea-level rise is threatening people’s habitat, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Therefore, reducing uncertainties in projections of future sea-level contribution from the Greenland ice sheet is of the highest importance. The research project GREASE has two main objectives that address the response of the ice sheet to climate change in the short-term and the long-term, respectively. The first objective is to determine upper bounds for rates of sea-level contribution from the Greenland ice sheet until 2050, 2100 and 2150. The results will serve as input for planners working on protection plans for cities and infrastructure in coastal areas worldwide. The second objective is to constrain climate change trajectories that lead to a stabilisation of the Greenland ice sheet until 2500. Reaching this objective will contribute to the evaluation of global mitigation targets to avoid a substantial loss of the Greenland ice sheet. The project will develop and use novel modelling techniques to study ice sheet evolution in response to future climate change. It will combine process understanding and detailed information from climate and ice sheet and modelling.

The Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest contributors to global mean sea-level rise today and is expected to continue losing mass in the future under increasing Arctic warming. Sea-level rise is threatening people’s habitat, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Therefore, reducing uncertainties in projections of future sea-level contribution from the Greenland ice sheet is of the highest importance for people living close to the coast and for planners working on protection plans for cities and infrastructure in coastal areas worldwide. In addition, it has been argued that warming beyond a certain threshold already during our own lifetime could bring the ice sheet over a tipping point and into a sustained and irreversible retreat, leading to meters of sea-level rise on a thousand-year timescale. The research project GREASE will provide a fundamental breakthrough in our understanding of the future stability of the Greenland ice sheet and its associated sea-level contribution using novel modelling techniques (standalone and coupled ice sheet-Earth System modelling). In close exchange with users, GREASE will provide actionable science to coastal planners and policy makers.

Publications from Cristin

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Funding scheme:

POLARPROG-Polarforskningsprogram