Automated real-time pore pressure and wellbore stability updates in a digital twin, using wired-pipe and log predictions ahead of bit

Wellbore instabilities represent a major cost in drilling operations worldwide. Information on rock properties, stresses and pore pressure along the planned well trajectory are necessary for obtaining a safe mud weight window and avoiding events such as stuck pipe, mud loss, and well control problems. Currently, drilling teams experience large uncertainties in prediction of pore pressure and wellbore stability, leading to extensive non-productive time. There is today no solution available in the market for automated real-time updates of pore pressure and well stability during drilling ahead of bit. The well logs collected during drilling are used neither efficiently nor systematically to update the drilling operation during operation as efficient as one could do. The idea is to test a digital workflow from pre-drill basin scale pore pressure modelling using a Monte-Carlo approach, till an automated update of pressure prognosis while drilling from e.g. sonic if available or resistivity logs, and thereby narrow the uncertainty in pore pressure ahead of bit. The innovative approach will reduce the uncertainty also in the predicted mud-weight window ahead of the bit. The project will demonstrate a unique automated approach enabling for real-time prediction of pore pressure and wellbore stability, ahead of bit during drilling and well operations. This will enable smoother decision making while drilling by continually updating the drilling plan. In addition, the uncertainty in the prediction will be quantified and dynamically updated while drilling. The modelled pore pressures in the well, will be compared with along-string measurements. A wire-pipe enables the real time transfer of information from downhole up to the surface at a faster rate than traditional methods. A real-time demonstration as a digital twin was carried out for AkerBP two North Sea wells, one in 2021 and one in 2022. The project is owned by Kongsberg Digital, with SINTEF as research partner. To implement this, the decision support system, SiteCom/WellAdvisor, is extended with “Smart Agents” for real-time pressure and well stability predictions.

The new solutions developed and implemented in the “Digital Twin PressureAhead” project will make the way for a novel, safer, more cost-effective and more accurate drilling in complex geological areas. Concrete examples: - Reduce risk of problems like kicks, losses, and well collapses - Make better decisions and drilling more cost-effective, The project was important for: • Academia; new research approach combining large scale basin modelling pore pressure approach with real time updates and data processing while drilling. This methodology has created a foundation for introducing machine learning for real-time well stability and mud window prediction combined with pore pressure in future. • Competence building: insight into industry workflow and drilling operations, mutual knowledge exchange between KDI and SINTEF. New approach, using Smart Agents for simulation approach. SINTEF has learned a lot how SiteCom is set up and the possibilities provided by this platform. Also, the researchers at SINTEF have gained knowledge on drilling campaigns and operations, how the workflow is carried out in the industry. The researchers at SINTEF have gained knowledge on drilling campaigns and operations, end user needs, and how the workflow is carried out in the industry. • For the vendors, a close collaboration with institute experts, and implementation of state-of-the-art research methodologies, helps the vendors to better and more advanced product development. Kongsberg Digital will through commercial utilization of the technology developed, create new market opportunities of significant value both in Norway and internationally. • For the industry, a new methodology and workflow have been developed and tested on their proprietary data set. Rerun using several drilling operations have been carried out (Alvheim, AlveNE and Skarv well), evaluating sonic or resistivity logs for pore pressure updates. The Smart Agents can be used further as a test bench. • For the society, the technology can open for reduced risk and safer drilling operations.

There is today no solution available in the market for automated real-time updates of pore pressure and well stabilities during drilling ahead of bit. In this project we will demonstrate such a digital workflow from pre-drill basin scale pore pressure modelling using a Monte-Carlo approach, till update of pressure and mud weight prognosis while drilling from e.g. sonic or resistivity data, and thereby narrow the uncertainties ahead of bit. The uncertainties in the predictions will be quantified and dynamically updated while drilling. This will considerably change the confidence of the drilling team in its choice of strategy during operations and enable more cost-effective drilling. Major contributors are the pore pressure prediction methods in the Pressim2.0 and PPM modules. Pressim2.0 relies on a rigorous simulation of sedimentation and compaction of identified rock layers through geologic times. Fault compartmentalization and fracture criteria are implemented in the simulation, with the end result of producing a 3D underground map of over-pressured volumes, with end-of-simulation values representing today's situation. The wellbore stability model PSI is based on improved correlations, giving the user many options to determine necessary input parameters for a comprehensive rock mechanics based failure analysis to determine the mud weight window. Each of the software modules above is the result of extensive R&D work over several years. In this project these modules will be used dynamically and integrated with real-time logging data and High-fidelity flow model, while drilling. The new PressureAhead HubApp combines four advanced software tools: Pore pressure prediction output from Pressim2.0, PPM for real-time update of pressure prognosis, wellbore stability prediction from PSI and real-time High-fidelity flow model calculations into a novel Module. The results should be made available in real time to the driller, as visualized in the SiteCom Console.