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ENERGIX-Stort program energi

IFE participation in Nordic Energy Outlooks energy system modelling forum

Awarded: NOK 1.5 mill.

The Nordic countries have a strong tradition in analyzing energy systems and energy modelling. Today, international forums facilitate collaboration amongst subsets of modelling groups, but often without a Nordic focus (such as the IEA ETSAP group for TIMES modelling). Current Nordic and European projects often include subsets of research groups from Nordic countries, but do not have comparative modelling within their scope. The goal of the "Nordic Energy Outlooks" has therefore been to strengthen the Nordic research competence and cooperation in the field of energy systems analysis. today, a number of different energy system models are used across the Nordic countries, both general and sector-specific models. The models are often developed internally and therefore differ on several dimensions, including geographical scope, inclusion of different sectors and energy carriers, as well as the goal of the optimization. This means that models are often used for different purposes and give different results. By connecting networks of Nordic researchers and academics in energy system modelling, the programme has increased Nordic collaboration where there has been little previously, contributed to increasing national competences in system modelling, and made the data that decision-makers use more resilient to faults. The program was divided into four work packages with different topics related to the green transition: Bioenergy, agriculture and LULUCF; Increased electrification – new generators and consumers; Energy efficiency and conservation; Fossil free and resource efficient transport. IFE has participated in the last three work packages. In all work packages, the researchers have tried to identify collaboration opportunities that could provide new insights into how methodology, models and assumptions influence the results of the different models. By getting better acquainted with the models and research approaches used in the different institutes, researchers could provide feedback on how to improve the models based on own expertise and experience. Another results of the project has been to provide recommendations for the national energy and climate plans for each of the Nordic countries. A consistent theme in these recommendations has been the need for increased Nordic cooperation. The analyzes show that the Nordic countries largely influence each other's development, and that a holistic analysis is crucial to understand the outcome of different transition pathways. A nordic cooperation will enable a stronger resilience and adaptability, which in light of climate change and geopolitical uncertainties will be essential to ensure security of supply. Moreover, having a common Nordic strategy for efficiency and conservation can enable better planning across the full energy value chain, enchancing investments in local measures. In terms of biomass and surplus heat sources, cooperation can give insightful information on how these resources can support the overall resilience of the energy system, as well as how a sustainable usage can be adopted across the Nordic countries. The analysis of present NECPs has revelaed that specific, quantified targets are lacking as well as relevant indicators for monitoring progress. Lastly, the project has revealed the need for open, accessible, and well documented datasets that the different existing modelling frameworks can build on. One report has been published for each of the four work packages in the project. The reports are available here: https://www.nordicenergy.org/programme/nordic-energy-outlooks/

The nordic collaboration has improved our understanding of how neighbouring countries engage with energy system models. By collaborating on similar topics and comparing inputs and results of energy system models, we have gained a deeper insight into the strengths (and weaknesses) of the different models. This is valuable for identifying new collaboration opportunities, where both data and methodology can be improved by sharing expertise within each Nordic country. Moreover, the project benefits from adopting several energy system models, including both bottom up models and sectorial models. This approach enables ut so assess the green transition at varying levels of granularity, facilitating easier identification of areas where general models prove too broad and where sector-specific models need to better account for developments in other segments of the energy system. The project has produced four reports to demonstrate how different energy system models can provide valuable insight on how to reach a green transition for the Nordics towrards sustainability and carbon neutrality. Moreover, the results have been analysed with regards to the current NECPs to provide recommendations on how these could be updated in the upcoming process. These are further summarized in an article that was published as part of the "Fast track to Vision 2030", a collection of policy brief articles written by Nordic researchers participating in collaborative projects funded by NordForsk or Nordic Energy Research (https://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1789341/FULLTEXT03.pdf)

The Nordic energy system is in transition with expansion in renewables, electrification of end-use sectors and new electricity consuming industries. We will provide methodological insights and analysis of the energy system integration of both new electricity supply and demand. This will be done by analyzing the Norwegian energy system that is connected to the Nordic and European power market. This includes evaluating future needs for electricity generation capacity and grid, interplay between new electricity supply and demand, impact on the transport and building sector, as well as evaluating the future role for supply and demand flexibility. Energy efficiency are considered a major contributor to the low-carbon transition since they lower the final energy demand. The use and understanding of the expression “energy efficiency” may differ between actors and circumstances. Energy efficiency can be use of more efficient equipment, it can be use of less energy due to investment in more insulation or windows with less heat losses, often referred to as energy conservation. Stronger regulations of new buildings will also improve energy efficiency and can both be modelled as a possible policy measure and as a part of demand projections. Another aspect of energy efficiency is demand reduction. We will build on established energy system models, and use the TIMES modelling framework to analyse the impact a broad range of energy efficiency measures. Transport: To match the feasibility of the different energy carriers for different transport types is a crucial and difficult task. The challenge lies in the uncertainty of the future technology and cost development which can easily be both under- and overestimated within the different transport and vehicle types. We will build on scenario work in ongoing and previous projects to derive consistent learning curves and policy storyline assumptions for the transport sector. The scenarios will be analysed in IFE-TIMES-Norway.

Publications from Cristin

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Funding scheme:

ENERGIX-Stort program energi