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Viktigheten av å hensynta arealbruksendringer i utredningger av Norske samferdselsinvesteringer.

Alternative title: The importance of including land-use changes in appraisals of Norwegian transportinvestments

Awarded: NOK 1.9 mill.

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Project Period:

2022 - 2027

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Great transport investments connect cities and areas closer together through reduced travel time and distance. This might drive a greater population growth and business development in some areas influenced by the investment. An example could be that a projects cause urban sprawl rather than urban densification. Changes in population growth etc. due to an transport investment is often referred to as land use changes, and land use changes drive again the total transport demand. Today, land use changes are rarely included in appraisals of Norwegian transport investments. This simplification is also often done in appraisals abroad, but the simplification has its cost because decision makers do not know all the consequences of the investment. To estimate the land-use changes due to an transport investment, so called LUTI models (Land-Use-Transport-Interation) are developed among transport planners. The purpose of this research project is to contribute to increased knowledge about the importance of including land use changes in appraisals of Norwegian transport investments. The project will hopefully also contribute for increased use of LUTI models in coming appraisals. The focus area of this research project will be on assessing how including land – use changes in the appraisals will affect the cost-benefit ratio of different projects and the total transport demand, energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions.

This project aims to find the importance of including land-use changes caused by transportinvestments in appraisals of the investments. It is well-known that new transport investments might change the land-use (e.g residental and labour areas) in the influence area of the project because the investment changes different areas accesibility to each other. However, there is limited empircal research on the subject and today, transport planners rarely calculate and include land-use effects in the appraisals. The consequenses of this simplification might be serious. First, decision makers will not know all the consequences of their investment. Changes in transport demand (caused by the investments impact on land-use) will affect e.g possible users of the investment, total energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Secondly, decision makers might prioritize projects in a suboptimal order if land-use changes are not included. Thirdly, when excluding land-use effects, decision makers will not know how the investment might lead to increased interest for some areas (at the expense of others). This project will answers the following reasearch questions with purpose of giving a better understandig of how important it is to including changes in land-use for transportappraisals: - What are the climate consequences of land-use changes caused Norwegian transport investments? - How will including land-use changes affect the net benefit and order of priority for transport projects in Nordic countries? - What is accessible for Norwegians? - Centralization or de-centralization of jobs. What are the pros and cons of different land-use strategies when considering changes in total transport demand and opportunities for the average person?

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