Extreme sea states, represented by the significant wave height, have tremendous impact on marine structural design and offshore operations where valuable assets and human lives are at stake. It is therefore of paramount importance to map and understand the physical processes leading to extreme seas and to correctly estimate their probability and magnitude. We will focus on large scale metocean conditions associated with extreme sea states. For our three regions of interest, the Central North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea, such metocean conditions have not yet been assessed systematically despite their immense value for improving return level estimates.
The project FORESEE (FOREcasting Sea StatE Extremes) will investigate seasonal predictability of extreme sea states utilizing knowledge about metocean conditions. Predictable relations can bring about answers to questions like ”What is the probability for exceeding wave heights of 7m in the coming season?”. Positive findings can pave the way to the first seasonal extreme sea state prediction system. We will pursue four objectives:
O1) Understand and quantify metocean conditions that cause extreme sea states
O2) Build a statistical model incorporating this knowledge to predict extreme sea states
O3) Transfer this knowledge to a seasonal ensemble prediction system
O4) Set up an operational system and assess skill
A key feature of FORESEE is that numerical model data will be bias-corrected utilizing observations to augment predictions of extreme sea state events. More precise predictions of extreme sea states would make the long-term planning of offshore operations more reliable and thus reduce risks and costs significantly.
FORESEE will be centered at MET Norway in Bergen with partners in Norway (NORCE), Cyprus (The Cyprus Institute), and Great Britain (University of Exeter, Lancaster University) bringing high expertise in statistics, waves, and seasonal forecasting.
Extreme sea states have tremendous impact on marine structural design and offshore operations where high assets and human lives are at stake. It is of paramount importance to map and understand the physical processes leading to these extremes and to correctly estimate their probability and magnitude. We will focus on large scale metocean conditions associated with extreme sea states. For our three regions of interest, the Central North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and the Barents Sea, such metocean conditions have not yet been assessed systematically despite their immense value for improving return level estimates. Even though the predictive skill of forecasting synoptic scale meteorological conditions on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales advanced greatly over the last decade, it has not been utilized to predict exceedance probabilities and return level estimates. Being able to answer a question like: ”What is the probability for exceeding 7 m SWH in the coming season” would make the long-term planning of offshore operations more reliable and precise and thus reduce risks and costs significantly. We plan to create a superior statistical extreme value model for our regions based on large wave hindcast datasets including the knowledge of metocean conditions connected to extreme sea states. Expanding this model to seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts will yield the first seasonal extreme sea state prediction system. This task will be achieved by combining strong interdisciplinary and international expertise on meteorology, ocean surface waves, and statistical modelling of environmental hazards. Our custom-fit dissemination plan will convey the knowledge and product to where it is needed.
