Next Arctic Rush? Critical Materials for the Energy Transition

To fulfill the Paris Agreement, the world needs to transition to 80% zero-emission energy by 2030, and 100% by 2050. The clean energy technologies needed to make this dramatic shift are dependent on the minerals known as "critical materials" (lithium, copper, rare earth elements etc.). If these are sourced from the Arctic, it might cause a shift in the interest in the region from fossil fuels to mining. This may complicate relations among the Arctic states and with the external actors interested in these resources. So far, research on Arctic geopolitics has paid little attention to this shift, and, conversely, the growing literature on the geopolitics of critical materials for the energy transition has paid little attention to the Arctic. The NEXTRUSH project will fill the gap. Since the start of the project, we have reviewed and ranked the minerals needed for clean energy technologies, and our geologist partner at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has reviewed the data on Arctic reserves and compared them to global reserves. Some of the findings from this work include: - The Arctic currently accounts for more than 10% of global production for only three critical minerals: platinum, palladium and nickel. Other critical minerals produced in the Arctic in smaller quantities include silver, copper, and cobalt. The Arctic also makes a significant contribution to global supplies of byproducts such as tellurium and selenium. - Most new production that comes online between now and 2034 is likely to be from mineral deposits that are already known, or from areas adjacent to existing known deposits. - Given the scale of its current mining operations in the Arctic and its need to boost mineral production and exports, it is possible that the major growth of production between now and 2034 will be in Russia. Exploration and feasibility studies in the Arctic regions of other countries will certainly identify new reserves and potential mining operations. We have also already published two academic articles that assess the implications for geopolitics of Svalbard, international relations, Arctic governance. Some of the key findings from these include: - The Arctic has become a victim of popularised geopolitical analyses. Common conceptions of ‘geopolitical rivalry’ being caused or even accelerated by sea ice melting are too simplistic. They underestimate the complexity of the political and legal dynamics at play and overstimate the explanatory power of geophysical change. - Misconceptions and myths concerning the Svalbard archipelago abound in the media and some academic scholarship – regarding everything from sovereignty disputes, legal and military status, and interpretations of the Svalbard Treaty. Other completed NEXTRUSH milestones and deliverables in 2024 include: 1) On 30 May 2024, NUPI and project partners organized a NEXTRUSH kick-off seminar in Bodø, Norway, where the project planning and research ideas for papers were discussed. 2) On 19 September, a roundtable on Arctic critical minerals was organized at NUPI, Norway. 3) The Arctic Governance Mailing List was launched in 2024. The link to it: https://groups.google.com/g/arcgov 4) Julia Loginova from Queensland University carried out a research visit to NUPI, attended a series of meetings there and participated in the Arctic Congress in Bodø. 5) In 2024, NUPI set up the NEXTRUSH Advisory Board with the following members: Next Rush Advisory Board: - Ståle Ulriksen, Høgskolelektor/forsker, Royal Norwegian Naval Academy (Sjøkrigsskolen), Norway - Øystein Rushfeldt, CEO Nussir, Norway - Erlend Opstad, Fagdirektør NFD, Norway - Alf Håkon Hoel, Professor UiT Norges Arktiske Universitet, Norway - Matilda Petersson, Researcher Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden

To fulfill the Paris Agreement, the world needs to transition to 80% zero-emission energy by 2030, and 100% by 2050. The clean energy technologies needed to make this dramatic shift are dependent on the minerals known as "critical materials" (lithium, copper, rare earth elements etc.). If these are sourced from the Arctic, it might cause a shift in the interest in the region from fossil fuels to mining. This may complicate relations among the Arctic states and with the external actors interested in these resources. So far, research on Arctic geopolitics has paid little attention to this shift, and, conversely, the growing literature on the geopolitics of critical materials for the energy transition pays little attention to the Arctic. The NEXTRUSH project will fill the gap. The project is genuinely interdisciplinary. An engineer will review the materials needed for clean energy technologies, geologists will review the data on Arctic reserves and compare them to global reserves, and, finally, social scientists will assess the implications for geopolitics, international relations, Arctic institutions and governance, and the role of China. The reviews of existing technological and geological data will be combined the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to measure the market dominance of supply sources and a Shell-style scenario-building exercise will be carried out. The project will result in six articles published in academic journals, the Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index (AERI) on oil, gas and mining in the Arctic (with its own website), a set of scenarios for Arctic mining and its consequences, the Svalbard Seabed Mining Symposium and Critical Materials Risk Fora. The project team include some of the people who are most active in research on the Arctic in Norway and who have an exceptional track record and resources available for academic and public communication, see the section on dissemination.