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Impact-Model intercomparison of PErmafrost dynamics in Climate-change overshoot Trajectories

Awarded: NOK 90,999

This project aims to investigate the robustness of results obtained in IMPOSE by considering a wider frame of model simulations from different sources, explicitly focusing on the representation and simulation of permafrost dynamics in land surface models under overshoot and negative emission scenarios. We will use a set of simulations performed under the umbrella of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison (ISIMIP) initiative that hosts various established Impact Models covering the permafrost sector and including carbon dynamics therein. We further plan to use a method called ‘climate pattern scaling’ to assess the uncertainty in land model forcing data by providing a range of temperature trajectories and assessing its effect on permafrost dynamics and the northern high-latitude carbon cycle.

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