RISKRES - Using industrial ecology methods to evaluate socioeconomic risk and resilience to climate and environmental impacts

The RISKRES project aims to investigate the exposure of the Norwegian economy to climate and environmental hazards, which are expected to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change. The project will begin by exploring the Norwegian economy by analyzing activities in different sectors at a fine scale, understanding the spatial distribution of value added. The goal is to distribute Norway's GDP at a point level. A map of Norwegian activity can be overlaid with maps of natural hazards (for example, floods) to understand the most vulnerable areas of the economy, the economic sectors affected, and the regions involved. The role of critical infrastructure, such as transportation or energy infrastructure, will be explored to evaluate Norwegian economic dependence on this infrastructure. This project aims to explore the role of linkages within the economy, specifically in terms of demand and supply, to analyze how the impact of a hazardous event can propagate throughout the economy. The project will also discuss measures that can be taken to mitigate such risks and evaluate the mitigation potential of several approaches. The goal is to inform policymakers and local actors of the means available to them to reduce their exposure and minimize the impact of future events. Started in September 2023, the project has so far focused on the following activities: Collecting data on location and key economic parameters at company level, as well as maps of flood risk for both coastal and river floods. Both datasets were plotted on a map of Norway to indicate which economic actors are most exposed to floods. Preliminary results are made available at https://apps.sustainability.nilu.no/activitymap-no. In addition, the project contributed to a study on limits to graphite supply in the battery scale-up scenarios, required for electrification of the global transportation sector. Main conclusions were that both natural and synthetic graphite supply could be a constraining factor in the most ambitious decarbonization scenarios (Net Zero emissions in 2050), highlighting the importance of systematic recycling of graphite in batteries.