Within the European Union, the Fennoscandian Arctic-alpine tundra is the biome exposed to fast climate changes - causing a severe threat to tundra biodiversity. Acting through increasing landscape fragmentation, changes in species interactions and invasion of competing boreal species. On top of that human activities and land use impact and urge the changes of the tundra ecosystems in Norway, Sweden and Finland.
Many tundra species therefore occur in increasingly fragmented distributions causing them to be more vulnerable to extinction, as is the situation for the Arctic fox in mainland Europe. The Arctic fox is classified as a climate change flagship species by the IUCN and is a priority species according to the EC Habitat Directive. The Fennoscandian Arctic fox was on the verge of extinction around the year 2000, with only 50 adult individuals remaining in a highly fragmented distribution. In response to efficient conservation actions, the population has started to recover, reaching ca 500 individuals.
Landscape connectivity and dispersal are important to secure viable populations of tundra species for the future. The project ARCTIC FOX EUROPE will work to identify priority areas and management actions that could help increase the viability of the Arctic fox population. GIS projections will be used to forecast how the spatial structure of the tundra will change under future climate change, adding different sources of human activity and land use, also exploring impacts of changes in ecosystem structure, i.e. occurrence of larger carnivores and density of reindeer populations.
Management agencies and stakeholders in Norway, Sweden and Finland is invited to involve in the project to identify and explore outcome of new and alternative management solutions, seeking to find the most efficient actions and the top priority areas where tundra ecosystems and species like the arctic fox could persist given future change.
Within the European Union, the Fennoscandian Arctic-alpine tundra is the biome exposed to the fastest climate change - causing a severe threat to tundra biodiversity through fragmentation, changes in the trophic dynamics and invasion of boreal species. Furthermore, human activities and land use increasingly impact the tundra in Fennoscandia. Many tundra species therefore occur in a fragmented distribution across habitat patches (metapopulation structure), rendering them more vulnerable with an elevated extinction risk. To maintain contact between habitat fragments, dispersal is a key process for securing viable populations for the future.
The Arctic fox is classified as a climate change flagship species by the IUCN and is a priority species according to the EC Habitat Directive. The Fennoscandian Arctic fox was on the verge of extinction around the year 2000, with only 50 adult individuals remaining in a highly fragmented distribution. In response to efficient conservation actions, the population has however recovered to ca 500 individuals.
ARCTIC FOX EUROPE will develop a metapopulation model to identify priority areas and management actions that increase viability of the Arctic fox metapopulation under scenarios of climate change and other human pressures. The model will be informed with data including Arctic fox population dynamics (demography, dispersal and genetics), trophic dynamics, and conservation actions over the last two decades in Fennoscandia. GIS projections will be used to forecast how the spatial structure of the tundra will change under future climate change. Management agencies and stakeholders in Norway, Sweden and Finland will be involved in ARCTIC FOX EUROPE to develop a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) framework. The metapopulation model will be used to explore outcomes of alternative management plans under different future scenarios, comparing costs and benefits, identifying trade-offs and synergies, and analyzing decision outcomes.
Funding scheme:
MILJØFORSK-Miljøforskning for en grønn samfunnsomstilling