DEMOKRATI-DEMOKRATI

The research and collaboration project FuturePop is aimed at supporting governance, planning, and policy-making through an integrated threefold approach. Current population projection models face significant challenges, particularly in accounting for detailed heterogeneity and quantifying uncertainty. To address these limitations, the project proposes transitioning from traditional macro-type models to dynamic spatial microsimulations, which can better capture the complexity and diversity of population dynamics. The ultimate goal is more accurate and reliable projections, particularly for local areas, which will enhance the ability of policymakers to plan for the future. A key focus of the project is to deepen the understanding of the processes driving centralization and rural depopulation. By analyzing factors such as immigration, local labor markets, and the dynamics between urban and rural areas, the project seeks to better understand these important demographic trends and identify their potential future trajectories. In addition to deepening our knowledge of demographic shifts, the project will evaluate the effectiveness of public policy interventions aimed at influencing population distribution. This includes assessing the impact of investments in infrastructure, such as airports and road networks, and their role in promoting regional development and addressing population imbalances. Researchers and academics from Statistics Norway, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, University of Leeds, and Queen’s University Belfast will carry out the project in collaboration with partners representing all levels of government. These include the Ministry of Local Government and Regional Development (KDD), Centre of Competence on Rural Development, Norwegian Association of Local and Regional Authorities (KS), County Governor of Troms and Finnmark, Panda Analyse, and a scientific advisory board.

The project addresses several pressing societal challenges, from the understanding of spatial dynamics to the effects of planning and policy interventions, with the aim of strengthening the governing and implementation capacity of the political and administrative apparatus across geographic levels and policy domains. WP1 and WP2 address methodological shortcomings of a core public planning tool, population projections. These relate to incorporating additional place and population heterogeneity, known to impact population dynamics, and to the quantification of projection uncertainty, departing from purely scenario-based predictions to a richer utilisation of statistical and forecasting uncertainty. WP2 shall also provide holistic evaluations of prospective consequences of (future) policy interventions, drawing on the novel combination of microsimulations and insights from causal evidence (from literature and WP4). WP3 details the dynamics of centralization and rural depopulation using rich longitudinal registry data in a multi-approach interdisciplinary manner, including causal methods. Specific focus is directed towards current societal topics and understanding of long-run dynamics and heterogeneity in processes. The topics include impacts of increased immigration (does it accelerate centralisation or are ‘new destinations’ challenging the prevalent norm?) and agglomeration economies (are cities engines of growth that deplete rural areas by attracting movers and high-productivity firms and industries, and if so, what are the key mechanisms at play?). WP4 addresses solutions and instruments by directly examining place-based policies – the effect of public sector activities on local populations and labour markets – an understudied subject. Specific focus will be directed towards public investments in infrastructure, particularly airports and roads. Insights in this area will be used to provide synthesis on the efficacy of this instrument in contrast to others.