Inferring evolutionary patterns from the fossil record using Bayesian inversion

The relationship between stratigraphic data and phylogenetic reconstruction in paleontology is controversial. Using phylogenies derived from cladistic analysis of fossil species to estimate the true ranges of taxa, is by many viewed as the best method of assessing the quality of the fossil record. In contrast to this purely "time-line" interpretation of stratigraphy, sequence stratigraphy recognizes the sedimentary record as a time-environment history. Modeling work shows that sequence architecture asser ts a strong influence on fossil occurrences, with important implications for the distribution of morphology, variance patterns, morphometric species recognition and character construction, all determinant factors in cladistic analysis. Further development of models for simulating the effects of sequence architecture on patterns of morphological character distribution and variance will result in predictions that can be tested in the field. This can be accomplished by bed-level sampling i n a high-resolutio n sequence stratigraphy setting, decribing specimens in their sedimentological context. In addition to meophometric and cladistic analyses, this specimen-facies data set allows plotting of taxa, specimens or individual characters in a time-environment mat rix. Comparing model expectations, observed stratigraphic patterns and results from clad istic analysis will give a better understanding of the relationship between stratigraphy and phylogeny.