The project will analyse Norwegian implementation of international commitments, in particular EU directives, and model their consequences for the energy system. Indicators will be established that also serve as parameters in the modelling exercise. Thus, the output from the policy studies is input in the technological analysis in the project.
The technological analysis will initially simulate the future Norwegian energy system taking into account the effect of induced technological change estimated by g lobal (e.g. MESSAGE) and regional models (e.g. MARKAL Europe). The Norwegian MARKAL model will be used together with the macro-economic models at Statistics Norway.
Upon defining possible range of action in the implementation of international commitments , alternative measures will be explored applying a scenario approach. Analysis of technological change will be assessed through concerted implementation of international commitments and technology deployment policy particularly with respect to niche mark et management. The results will form the basis for developing a soft-link between the Norwegian/Nordic MARKAL model and the global/regional models. The soft-link should improve the representation of induced technological change due to local deployment of technology through e.g. niche and protected market management, and feedback in terms of learning in the global technology market.
Main research questions:
·What is the operative content of established and emerging international regulations relating to energy production and consumption?
How does implementation of international commitments influence Norwegian policy with regard to energy technology innovation and diffusion?
·What are the main policy options for Norway, given international constraints?
·What will be the effect of various combinations of policy instruments, with regard to Norwegian environmental considerations, energy supply, and management of niche markets for new technologies?