Integrated environmental modelling for river basin management: Models, uncertainties and good modelling practice

Mathematical models are increasingly used in both core and applied science projects and within environmental management, which is not surprising since models help to organise, synthesize, and track information and scientific knowledge and hypothesis in a way that would not be possible otherwise. At the same time, new demands for both models, modellers and the modelling practise are set, especially in environmental management related cases where model results are potentially used as input for making decisi ons. The main aim of our proposed Model-SIP (Strategic Institute Programme) project is to develop, apply, analyse and integrate appropriate models in an interdisciplinary way (covering the science of hydrology, limnology, ecology, mathematics, statistic s, etc.) to explore and to predict the future states of the environmental issues and problems, as well as the impacts of the planned abatement measures, in our case study river basin, Vansjø-Hobøl. The gained modelling knowledge and expertise can, of cour se, be transferred to and utilised in numerous other river basins, both in- and outside of Norway. In order to enhance the performance of the models and to increase the credibility of the results from the model applications as well as their relevance to t he implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), we will emphasize in our project especially the use of (1) integrated models, (2) good modelling practice, and (3) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques. The Model-SIP project will d eliver 3-5 well-functioning and well-documented model applications covering, and simulating the different features of the entire Vansjø-Hobøl river basin. In addition, the project will deliver both scientific and popularized publications on the model deve lopments, applications, and analysis techniques, as well as modelling related expert workshops and arrangements for the local stakeholders.