Youth Exclusion and Political Violence

Recent academic studies have found that large youth cohorts, or 'youth bulges', under conditions of social, economic and political exclusion, increase the risk of political violence such as small-intensity armed conflict, terrorism and rioting. However, these large youth cohorts may also represent a significant resource that can boost development, a so-called 'demographic dividend'. Recent studies in economic demography suggest that the relationship between large youth cohorts and political violence may be muted if large youth cohorts precede significantly smaller cohorts. While high growth rates in the non-working, or dependent, age groups are associated with lower economic growth, increases in the working-age population are positively associated with e conomic growth. However the realization of this 'demographic dividend' depends on the social, economic, and political environment. Identifying contextual factors that may break the general adverse relationship between youth bulges and political violence w ill help policy makers realize the potential of large youth cohorts. This project focuses on key under-researched areas, and will point to emerging policy implications from the research on youth and conflict. It will address ways to break the general adve rse relationship between youth bulges, marginalization, and political violence, and how large youth cohorts can be engaged positively in development. The challenge of youth bulges is most pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia where extraordin ary large youth cohorts will be a dominating demographic feature for decades to come due to continued high fertility rates. Intended audiences are international development and conflict prevention actors including UN agencies and the World Bank, governmen ts of donor countries and countries at-risk, as well as international scholars, particularly in the fields of conflict prevention, development studies and peace research, and the public at large.