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KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima

ArcAct - Unlocking the Arctic ocean: The climate impact of increased shipping and petroleum activities

Tildelt: kr 9,5 mill.





2008 - 2014

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Petroleum and shipping activities at higher latitudes have increased considerably over recent years, and a significant further increase is expected. Melting of sea ice will open opportunities for new shipping routes and lengthen the navigation season of e xisting routes, as well as open new areas for oil/gas production. We will assess, in terms of radiative forcing, the climate impact of increased oil/gas and shipping activity in the Arctic. Future emissions will be estimated for scenarios of development o f global shipping and oil/gas exploration. Of particular interest are the potential region-specific effects; thus emphasis will be put on short-lived species, such as primary (BC and OC) and secondary particles (sulfate, secondary OC, and nitrate), and O3 in addition to long-lived GHGs. The timing and location of the emissions of short-lived species will be taken into account. A global 3-D chemical transport model that includes a comprehensive photochemical scheme and modules for sulfate, BC and OC aeroso ls, and secondary OC will be applied. Radiative forcing simulations will be performed for the long- and short-lived gases, as well as for the direct and indirect aerosol effects. The impact of aerosols on clouds will be based on observational studies of h ow aerosols change the cloud droplet radius and cloud cover. The climate impact of oil and gas exploration will be normalized by activity data to enable a comparison with similar production in other regions. A similar approach will be taken for shipping t o compare with other and alternative shipping routes. The overall effect including lower fuel consumption from ships taking shorter routes between Europe and Asia will be estimated. The project will provide a policy relevant assessment of the overall clim ate effect of a shift of activities from other regions to the Arctic, and particularly whether emissions occurring in the Arctic region will be more harmful for climate than emissions occurring at lower latitudes.


KLIMAFORSK-Stort program klima