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ENERGIX-Stort program energi

Integration of methods and tools for security of electricity supply analysis

Tildelt: kr 10,5 mill.

Power system operation as well as the system itself is under change for a number of reasons, making it a challenge to maintain security of operation and reliability of supply to end customers. A particular challenge is to include and represent adequately the uncertainties and risks involved. They are caused partly by the stochastic nature of renewable generation such as from hydro and wind and partly by stochastic component failures in the system. The methods and tools needed for security of electricity supply assessment range from long term market models for predicting future generation and load patterns to more detailed network simulation models for analysing contingencies and reliability of supply for delivery points. Existing tools for this chain of analyses and simulations are highly specialized. However, they are fragmented as there are rather weak conceptual and methodological links today. In this project a concept integrating power market and contingency analysis with reliability analysis will b e defined together with the development of the reliability analysis. A particular problem is multiple outage events with potentially severe consequences, but low probability. The traditional reliability analysis based on expectation values is unable to ca pture extraordinary events with low probability and high impact, and there are large challenges related to handle different uncertainties. The integrated methodology will provide a fundamental tool in security of supply assessment, addressing societal im pacts of energy and capacity shortage as well as power system failures. The companies demanding such analyses (TSOs, authorities, grid utilities, large industry) will get access to a consistent methodology and competence that is not available today. This will provide better, more robust and more efficient analyses of the Nordic power system as well as for larger regions on a national basis.

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ENERGIX-Stort program energi