Constructing an integrated modeling framework for decision support in ecosystem-based management: case study Lofoten/Barents Sea

Ecosystem based management (EBM) is today the accepted regulatory mechanism for managing the sustainable use of marine goods and services while maintaining good environmental status. The SYMBIOSES project initiates development of a first of its kind integ rated modeling system to support the practical application of EBM as an effective management approach. The SYMBIOSES system is being built by leading marine institutes in Norway and international partners. The system simulates marine ecosystem components in three dimensional space and time in order to predict impacts from selected combinations of sea based activities i.e. fisheries and petroleum operations. The SYMBIOSES modeling system allows prediction of population level changes in key commercial fish species linked to Norway's Lofoten/Barents Sea region. SYMBIOSES aims to become a vital aid to impact and risk analysis, management, decision-making and stakeholder communication for the Lofoten/Barents Sea region. Achievements to date are: Design and construction of the SYMBIOSES framework: The SYMBIOSES system is established on the Tromsø node (STALLO) of the Norwegian National Supercomputer Network (NOTUR). The design of the SYMBIOSES supercomputer framework was completed in 2011 and system development began in early 2012. Special interfaces have been designed and constructed for easy attachment/detachment of individual models (biology, physics, ecotoxicology, etc.) to the framework. All model components are now connected to the supercomputer framework and testing of the entire system began in 2013. Design and construction of an ecotoxicology database: The SYMBIOSES ecotoxicology database is complete and is accessible through an internet link. It assembles original data from ecotoxicology experimental studies performed on Arctic organisms with relevance for petroleum industry discharges. The database is used to run the ecotoxicology computer module which is part of SYMBIOSES. This database includes data available from the literature as well as from studies performed for industry by selected members of the SYMBIOSES research consortium. The database includes data on species, effect, measurements, life stage, study time, number of measurements, number of replicates, toxicity endpoint, toxic dose, concentration units, concentration type, chemical description, experimental type, exposure, acute toxicity rating, feeding, temperature, container, reference, year published, journal, notes, additional points measurements. The species selected are: phytoplankton, zooplankton (C. glacialis, C. finmarchicus), and fish (Cod, Capelin, and Herring). The database synthesizes all data located from studies on any petroleum associated chemicals/compounds. In all, the database includes 29 different oil associated chemicals/compounds (Olsen et al., 2013). System testing: Full-scale testing of the SYMBIOSES system is now underway. An initial series of ten tests have been performed by the consortium to evaluate system performance. Test scenarios were selected from a set of scenarios defined for the Integrated Management Plan for the Marine Environment of the Barents Sea/Lofoten Area (Management Plan). First results of the testing plan are now available. The SYMBIOSES system passed all ten functionality tests. The conclusion from this testing program was that the system functions properly and provides reliable results. System testing continues through early 2016.

The SYMBIOSES project initiates development of an integrated modeling framework for ecosystem based assessments with application to the Lofoten/Barents Sea region. The proposed integrated modeling system combines 6 existing component models into a single integrated framework to simulate ecosystem interactions (phytoplankton to top predator fish) together with the uptake, bio-transfer and effects of petroleum hydrocarbons in the marine ecosystem. This allows for the simultaneous analysis of the combined im pact of fisheries and petroleum industry activities on the marine ecosystem with the potential to include other perturbation factors in the future. This project involves a consortium of field, experimental, and modeling experts in ecology, ecotoxicology, and risk assessment from 16 institutes and 8 nations. It is a follow-up to an industry financed project to create the system design. The final design involves a three step process: 1. Construction; 2. Testing; and 3. Optimization. The completion of all st eps will realize a fully functioning ecosystem simulation and analysis tool to soundly assess pressures, risks and benefits from all activities in an integrated way, taking into account both uncertainty and variability. The system will be openly available for use by scientists and environmental decision-makers. This application to the Research Council of Norway, together with matching financial support from one end-user community, initiates the first step of this three step process: system construction. T o construct the system, we will establish an integrated modeling framework at the University of Tromsø supercomputer facility, upgrade the individual models for inclusion in the framework, transfer and connect the individual models to the system, and perf orm initial tests. At the completion of this project, a 'proof of concept' demonstration event is planned to disseminate information on the project and to highlight project achievements.