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HAVKYST-Havet og kysten

Uncertainty Assessments Related to Opening New Areas for Petroleum Activity

Tildelt: kr 4,9 mill.

The present political and public debate on whether to open new areas within the Norwegian E.E.Z for oil operations is heated. The legitimacy of the expert groups consulted has been questioned, adding heat to the discussion. The high knowledge uncertainty allows for quite different interpretations, and the great values at stake raise the question of how uncertainty is best accounted for in terms of societal gains. The complexity of any ecosystem limits the predictability of the impact of future events, whi ch in themselves may not be predictable. To provide a solid basis for decision making, key uncertainties must be brought to the center of the discussion. First however, these uncertainties must be identified and presented in a coherent way. A considerable part of the uncertainty is beyond what is quantifiable and explains some of the tension in the debate. This project aims at developing a tool for identifying and assessing key uncertainties by merging two methodological approaches: the uncertainty framew ork developed by Walker et al. (2003) and the Delphi method (Adler and Ziglio, 1996). The Walker et al. framework allows to address the non-quantitative aspects of uncertainty, for example the choice of boundary in converting the policy problem to a techn ical or a research problem, the assumptions underlying the body of knowledge, validation of results and irreducible uncertainties, to mention some. The Delphi method provides an expert based process for evaluating the uncertainties, in terms of which shou ld be considered the most relevant for the policy problem. It also facilitates a learning process for the experts involved, i.e. relevant technical expertise, marine scientists and managers. The results from this assessment will be presented and discussed at a workshop with stakeholders. The workshop will provide recommendations for making the precautionary principle operational concerning opening new areas for petroleum activity.

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HAVKYST-Havet og kysten