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PETROSAM2-Samfunnsvitenskapelig petroleumsforskning

Export of Natural Gas from Russia (184739)

Tildelt: kr 0,93 mill.

An important part of the Petrosam program of the Research Council of Norway is to improve our knowledge of international trends and how these may affect the value of the Norwegian petroleum reserves. In this project we wish to focus on the importance of R ussia for the value of Norway's natural gas reserves: Russia currently supplies roughly 40 percent of the natural gas imported by the EU, which puts it ahead of Norway - the second largest source - which supplies roughly 20 percent. We have identified two important policy issues in Russia that would likely have important repercussions on the EU gas market, and that we wish to examine in this project: First, domestic gas users in Russia (especially the household sector) are currently facing prices far belo w the net-back price (i.e., the export price to the EU net of additional transport costs). Russia has, however, stated a desire to - over time - equalize its marginal revenue from domestic and export markets, but has so far shifted this policy into the fu ture to avoid painful domestic price increases. Higher domestic gas prices will, through lower demand, make more gas available for export. Secondly, Russia may find it in its interest to expand its export markets (currently the EU and former USSR countrie s) by building pipelines to the growing Asian markets or entering the international LNG trade. We wish to analyze various scenarios (placed in 2020) that vary along these dimensions, and will analyze these within a well-established numerical model of the European gas market. In doing this, we will also take into account key uncertainties within the EU market: The extent to which the ongoing energy market liberalization successfully moves forward, and the extent to which the EU will be able to implement it s ambitious 20-20-20 environmental policy targets in 2020.

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PETROSAM2-Samfunnsvitenskapelig petroleumsforskning