No-analogue climates and ecological responses in the past and future (NoAClim)

"Fossil pollen and climate models suggest a messy world in 2100, as surviving species reshuffle into entirely new combinations, creating 'no-analogue' ecosystems" (Fox 2007, Science 316:823). This project is designed to test this scenario for Norden and t he Baltic Countries. Its approach is to develop climate hindcasts and predictions for every 250 yrs through the Holocene and 500 yrs into the future (100 yr intervals) using a regional climate model derived from the HadCM3 model. Climate-analogue analysis is used to detect no-analogue climates relative to today in the past and the future. Using the rich array of pollen-stratigraphical data, no-analogue assemblages will be identified using modern analogue techniques. Key niche metrics (optimum tolerance) o f the major pollen taxa will be estimated for different times in the Holocene and today to explore if these metrics have changed with time. These metrics will be used with future climate simulations to predict 'ensembles' of future abundances of major pol len taxa that will be transformed into estimates of future plant abundances. Scenario planning will then be applied to provide informed bases for future management and adaptation strategies.