Micro-Foundations of Conflict Escalation (MiCE)

Hvorfor eskalerer noen lavintensitetskonflikter til store kriger? Hvorfor forblir noen ikke-voldelige konflikter ikke-voldelige, mens andre utvikler seg til kriger? Litteraturen mangler fortsatt gode svar på slike spørsmål. Prosjektet «The Micro-Foundations of Conflict Escalation» (MiCE) hadde som formål å finne ut hvordan og hvorfor konflikteskalering skjer, og å dokumentere noen konsekvenser av dette. De viktigste resultatene av prosjektet inkluderer utviklingen av nye statistiske teknikker for å modellere eskalering av konflikt, som kommer til å ha et bredt bruksområde innenfor samfunnsvitenskapelige disipliner. Prosjektet gjennomførte også en stor spørreundersøkelse blant tidligere stridende i Colombia - den største utført av forskere noensinne. Prosjektet resulterte i publisering av flere akademiske artikler og policy briefs som kan bidra til bedre beslutninger for å sikre vellykket reintegrering av tidligere stridende, både i Colombia og andre steder.

The core goals for the MiCE project have been achieved. We began with the ambitious task of understanding conflict escalation. We posited that by developing tailored statistical estimators to study conflict escalation, and conducting novel data collection efforts with ex-combatants and ordinary civilians we would be better positioned to understand what causes some conflicts to escalate, and with what consequences. As the Progress Report makes clear, we have published the findings from these exercises in leading statistical and political science journals; authored a set of working papers that are either under review at top journals or nearly ready for submission; have presented results from the published articles and working papers at international conferences; and fielded what we believe is the largest scholarly survey of ex-combatants ever conducted (despite COVID-19 related setbacks).

Conflict research is still dominated by studies of how, why, and when conflicts start and end. Insufficient attention has been paid to what happens during conflict. Consequently, we still have only a rudimentary understanding of processes of conflict escalation. This project addresses this gap by taking a broad view and studies escalation in terms of lethality, geographic scope, number of participating actors, the breadth of targets of violence, the extent to which repertoires of violence are narrow or wide, and the aims of the actors. Escalation is a dynamic process: past and current behavior of actors, beliefs about future behavior, and institutions and norms prior to and formed by the conflict all affect the risk of escalation. To understand escalation, it is necessary to theorize and utilize data at different levels of analysis -- at the individual level, the armed group level, the event level, and at various levels of geographic resolution. To this end, the project will use both qualitative and quantitative methods, and draw on recent developments in statistics developed outside the discipline of political science. It aims to explain why some non-violent interactions between the state and protesters escalate and become violent, and under what conditions an active armed conflict escalates. As such, this proposal addresses fundamental issues central to political science and conflict research. If peace research is to fulfill its potential in aiding actors in mediating, alleviating, and ultimately stopping armed conflict, understanding escalatory dynamics is critical. Our ambition is to be able to offer the international community some guidance on what conflicts will escalate and which will not, as well as guidance on how best to prevent or reverse escalatory dynamics.