Is this Russias Kodak moment? Russian perspectives on the energy transition

Begrepet "Kodak-øyeblikk" dreier seg om utfordringen med å forutse at nye teknologier og markedsmønstre vil undergrave etablert forretningsvirksomhet. Dette kommer fra det store amerikanske selskapet Kodak som lagde film for fotoapparater og mente at digitale kameraer ikke ville true deres marked. På en lignende måte kan Parisavtalen og stadig billigere sol- og vindkraft undergrave fossile energikilder. Dette prosjektet undersøker (1) om russiske energiaktører er bevisst muligheten for rask utfasing av fossil energi; (2) hvilke konsekvenser de tror dette vil få for Russlands eksport av fossil energi; (3) hvilke tiltak de iverksetter for å beskytte dem mot en slik utvikling. Prosjektet utføres i samarbeid av økonomer og statsvitere og inkluderer samarbeid mellom forskere i Norge, Russland, Storbritannia og Tyskland. Prosjektet vektlegger sammenlignende studie av russiske energiaktører og tilsvarende aktører i andre land. Hensikten er å ta for seg Russland i et bredere globalt perspektiv som ofte mangler i Russlands-studier. Den foreløpige konklusjonen er at bevisstheten rundt energitransisjon i Russland er stigende og det før invasjonen av Ukraina hadde startet en debatt og utredning (i det små) av hvilke muligheter Russland har i en dekarbonisert verden. Mye av fokuset var på blått hydrogen (dvs. hydrogen produsert fra naturgass med karbonfangst). Nå overskygges dette imidlertid av krigen og sanksjonene mot Russland. Det er så vidt vi har funnet ingen i Russland som nå tenker på/ser den mulige koblingen fra sanksjonene og videre til avkarbonisering, selv om den er ganske åpenbar. På konferansen forutsa Indra Øverland at det ville oppstå uroligheter internt i Russland innen et år, og slik ble det da Wagner/Prigozhin forsøkte å storme Moskva. NUPIs årlige Russlandskonferanse var i 2022 viet tematikken i dette prosjektet og ble organisert i samarbeid med FNI som har et annet prosjekt finansiert av samme program i NFR. Det var 220 påmeldte til konferansen og det ble et interessant arrangement. I 2023 publiserte NUPI-forskerne Kacper Szulecki og Indra Nobl Øverland artikkelen "Russian nuclear energy diplomacy and its implications for energy security in the context of the war in Ukraine" i Nature Energy. Dette er et av verdens mest siterte tidsskrifter.

OUTCOMES The project financed and facilitated: 1) The organization of a large conference on Russia in which 220 of the key Norwegian policymakers, academics, and businesspeople for whom Russia is relevant participated. 2) Cooperation with the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI) on the conference. FNI is one of the other key Norwegian institutions that does research on Russia, and it is therefore good that FNI and NUPI cooperate and coordinate. 3) International cooperation with colleagues in Germany, Russia, and the UK. 4) Cooperation between Russia researchers in northern and southern Norway. 5) Broad media coverage of project publications and findings in major international media (Berlingske, Bloomberg, CNN, Helsingin Sanomat, Le Monde, MSN, New York Times, Politiken, The Economist, Tribune de Geneve, etc.). 6) In 2022, the project leader was ranked as the ninth most followed Norwegian researcher (across all disciplines) in social media. Much of his social media activity was relevant for the project. 7) These things all contributed to profiling the researchers involved in the project and Norway as a key location for expertise on Russia. The project produced good and relevant publications, including: • An article in Nature Energy, one of the most cited journals social scientists can publish in (Impact Factor in 2022: 63.9). • A highly cited article (published in 2020, already has 430 citations in Google Scholar) • Analysis of aspects of the Russia-energy transition interface that have not received enough attention from othe IMPACTS Through the project, the researchers who participated in it developed their knowledge of how the global energy transition affects Russia and how Russia deals with this. It was particularly valuable to have this project ongoing while during the years of crisis in Russian-Western relations precipitated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in which Western dependence on Russian fossil fuels was central. This knowledge will be useful as the global energy transition accelerates and Russia and other fossil fuel exporters (including Norway) are increasingly affected. The relationships developed with Russian researchers will be important for the future, especially as it is difficult to develop new relationships with Russian researchers due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the oppressive situation inside Russia, and the difficulty of travel between Russia and the West. In terms of academic impact, the project is highly successful and the published works will continue to receive a large number of citations annually. It is difficult to measure the impact of such a project on Norway's policy towards Russia, but it is reasonable to argue that such research builds a knowledge base that is useful for dealing with Norway's most challenging neighbor and the many difficult choices that the Russian invasion of Ukraine forces Norwegian policymakers to make. That knowledge-base is needed more than ever.

The term "Kodak moment" refers to a failure to foresee technological developments and market trends that threaten established business models. The Paris Agreement (now ratified by 170 countries) and the falling cost of solar and wind power threaten to undermine demand for fossil fuels. This project will examine (1) whether Russian energy actors are aware of the possibility of swift decarbonization of the global energy supply; (2) what consequences they think it would have for demand for Russian fossil fuels exports; and (3) what measures they are implementing in order to hedge against such a development. The project incorporates a comparative analysis of Russian actors and their peers around the world in order to see Russia in a broader global perspective that is often missing in Russian studies. The research is a collaborative endeavor between economists and political scientists and includes cooperation between researchers working on Russia in Norway, Germany and the UK, as well as Russia itself. A comparative international survey of students studying energy issues in Russia and other major oil producing countries will be included, drawing on the network of academics in Canada, Colombia, Iraq, Indonesia, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands previously established for the book 'Public Brainpower' (Øverland, Palgrave, 2018).