Spatial shifts of marine stocks and the resilience of polar resource management - wild cards at play (STOCKSHIFT-PLUS)

Global oppvarming og andre miljøendringer er i ferd med å endre den geografiske utbredelsen av fiskebestander i polare farvann. I Barentshavet trekker torsken nordøstover, mens vi i Norskehavet ser store endringer i størrelse, fordeling og vandringsmønstre for stimfiskbestander som makrell. Disse utviklingstrekkene setter etablerte forvaltningsregimer under press. I dette tverrvitenskapelige forskningsprosjektet går marinbiologer, folkerettseksperter og statsvitere sammen om å undersøke hvor effektive etablerte forvaltningsregimer er i lys av disse bestandsforflytningene. For det første spør vi hvordan klimaendringene påvirker den geografiske utbredelsen av polare fiskebestander - ser vi noen generelle trekk i hvordan de ulike bestandene beveger seg? For det andre ser vi på forvaltningsregimenes motstandsdyktighet og tilpasningsevne - er de fortsatt i stand til å sikre bærekraftig fiskeriforvaltning? STOCKSHIFT-PLUS bygger på forskningen som finner sted under STOCKSHIFT-prosjektet, som er finansiert av Forskningsrådets Polarforskningsprogram (POLARPROG) i perioden 2016-2019, men utvider dette prosjektets empiriske nedslagsfelt. Det fokuserer på hendelser som har funnet sted etter at hovedprosjektet ble utformet og som på det tidspunktet ikke var påregnelige, såkalte "wild cards": i) snøkrabbekonflikten i Barentshavet mellom Norge og EU; ii) Brexit; og iii) strukturelle endringer i russisk fiskerinæring og -forvaltning.

The project has led to three peer-reviewed journal articles and four peer reviewed book chapters. It has produced a unique expertise on the snow crab conflict in the Barents Sea, on the potential effects of Brexit on international fisheries management regimes in the Norwegian Sea, and on developments in Russian fisheries management. Partly, the project has made it possible for established experts in the field to update their knowledge in view of recent developments. In other areas, notably the effects of Brexit on international fisheries management, the project has enabled the building of new expertise. This competence will available to Norwegian authorities and fishing industry, as well as the media and public at large. Not least, the project team will be useful commentators when the new fisheries nexus UK/EU/Norway will be negotiated over the coming year(s). Additional peer reviewed publications are also expected on this topic, where STOCKSHIFT-PLUS has provided the groundwork.

Climate change and other environmental factors are currently causing variability in the spatial distribution of fish stocks in Arctic waters. In the Barents Sea, cod is expanding northeastwards, while in the Norwegian Sea significant changes in abundance, distribution and migratory patterns can be observed in pelagic species such as mackerel and herring. These developments put established management regimes under pressure. In this truly interdisciplinary research endeavour, leading scientists from political science, marine biology and international law join efforts to study the resilience of Arctic marine resource management institutions to large-scale shifts of major marine stocks. How is climate change affecting distributional shifts of Arctic fish stocks - are there any general patterns of movement, adaptability and recruitment? To what extent do shifts in migratory patterns influence the fit between the spatial scope of existing international management regimes and the fishing activities they seek to govern? How does continued effectiveness require adaptation within the complexes of institutions that co-govern commercial activities in Arctic marine ecosystems? STOCKSHIFT-PLUS builds on the existing research that takes place under the STOCKSHIFT project financed by the POLARPROG programme for 2016-2019, but extents its empirical scope. It focuses on events that have taken place after the original project was conceived in 2015, notably events that were not predictable to happen at the time, so-called "wild cards": i) the conflict about snow crab between Norway and the EU; ii) Brexit; and iii) upheavals in the Russian fishing industry and system for fisheries management.