Benchmarking Brexit: Norway and the Legitimacy of UK-EU relations after Brexit

Den europeiske union (EU) er hovedkilde til felles politisk og rettslig orden i dagens Europa. EU former de politiske, økonomiske og sikkerhetsmessige rammene som alle europeiske demokratier forholder seg til. Samtidig er det vanskelig å organisere relasjonene mellom EUs medlemsland og ikke-medlemmer på en måte som sikrer demokratisk legitimitet for alle. BENCHMARK undersøker om Brexit vil gjøre dette enda vanskeligere. Gitt at Norge har utviklet det som trolig er den mest ambisiøse modellen så langt for hvordan et ikke-medlemsland kan samarbeide med EU, undersøker BENCHMARK hvordan Storbritannia har bestemt seg i vurderinger mellom å kopiere eller avvise et forhold som ligner det mellom Norge og EU. Forskningen identifiserer et puslespill: I forkant av folkeavstemningen ble det allment antatt at dersom Storbritannia måtte finne et alternativ til medlemskap, ville en relasjon likt det mellom Norge og EU i det minste vurderes. I etterkant av folkeavstemningen har imidlertid den norske modellen i stor grad forsvunnet fra den britiske politiske agendaen. Dette etterlater seg flere uløste problemer, inkludert i) posisjonen til Skottland og Nord-Irland, som uten tvil ville ha foretrukket å ta i bruk trekk ved den norske modellen, ii) utfordringer med prosessuell legitimitet i hvordan alternativer til medlemskap, som den norske modellen, har blitt diskutert og avgjort, og iii) vanskeligheter med bestemte retningslinjer. Viktigs her er at manglende etterligning av aspekter ved den norske modellen gjør at Storbritannia står uten adgang til EUs indre marked, gitt at Det europeiske økonomiske samarbeidsområdet (EØS) innlemmer samlingen av institusjonelle og juridiske ordninger som trolig er nødvendig for at ethvert ikke-medlem skal kunne delta i det indre markedet.

BENCHMARK uses the question of whether the UK should adopt a similar relationship to that between Norway and the European Union to identify difficulties of arranging relationships between members and non-members of the EU in ways that ensure democratic control, political equality and fairness for all European democracies. Through studies of UK Government decisions and parliamentary and media debate, we show how deciding between alternatives to membership has been as important as deciding between remaining or leaving the EU to what kind of democracy, political system, legal order, international actor, economy and society the UK is likely to be outside the EU. As well as contributing to research fields on European political order after Brexit, BENCHMARK has a societal impact by showing that it is not just membership of the EU that affects the overall structure of institutions, laws and opportunities under which citizens live their lives. So do choices between forms of non-membership.

The European Union is the main source of shared political and legal order in contemporary Europe. It shapes the political, economic and security systems under which all European democracies live. Yet it is structurally difficult to arrange relations between EU members and non-member democracies in ways that secure core standards of democratic legitimacy for all of them. BENCHMARK investigates whether any Brexit will aggravate that difficulty. Given that Norway has developed what is probably the most ambitious model to date for how a non-member state can co-operate with the EU, BENCHMARK will distinguish four scenarios for any Brexit in which (i) UK/EU relations break down completely or the UK and EU commit after Brexit to (ii) fewer; (iii) similar or (iv) even more obligations than Norway’s present relationship with the EU. BENCHMARK will then use the scenarios to investigate whether avoiding or replicating Norway’s relationship with the EU will make any Brexit more or less legitimate: (a) in the UK as a whole; (b) in Scotland and Northern Ireland; (c) with the European Union; and (d) in Norway itself. BENCHMARK will use official documents and parliamentary and media debates to analyse how far claims about detailed institutional implications of each of the scenarios are accepted as legitimate across (a)-(d). BENCHMARK will likewise analyse whether there is variation in the legitimacy of the four scenarios across policies of importance to Norway: trade, security, migration, agriculture and fisheries, development aid, energy and climate. Throughout the research, climate policy will also be used as a reference case for how collective-action problems and constitutional problems can interact differently across policies to shape the legitimacy of alternative ways of structuring relations between the EU and non-member democracies after any Brexit.