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EU-STRA-Strålevern

CONFIDENCE: COping with uNcertainties For Improved modelling and DEcision making in Nuclear emergenCiEs - NMBU

Alternativ tittel: CONFIDENCE: Håndtering av usikkerhet i nuklær beredskap

Tildelt: kr 0,66 mill.

Skal oversettes senere

To date the project has provided valuable information for reducing uncertainties and improving models dealing with the emergency phase of a nuclear accident. This includes improvement of the source term in accidental scenarios, and factors influencing transfer in human food chains. Characterisation of social and ethical uncertainties will be important for future model development work. Since the project still has over a year to go, we expect the full benefits to be seen during the next 12 months. Regarding networking, the project, and NMBUs comtribution, has been presented at key international emergency prepardeness meetings in 2017 and 2018 (a total of 6 presentations). Within Norway interaction with stakeholders and end-users has included authorities, emergency preparedness experts and the general public.

In nuclear emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, dealing with uncertain information on the current situation, or predicted evolution of the situation, is an intrinsic problem for decision making. Uncertain information related to, for instance, incomplete information on the source term and the prevailing weather can result in dose assessments that differ dramatically from reality. Uncertainty is also an intrinsic part of model parameters. In the presence of uncertainty, ineffective decisions are often taken (e.g. too conservative or optimistic predictions, inadequately accounting of non-radiological risks), which may result in more overall harm than good due to secondary causalities as observed following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents. Therefore, the reduction of uncertainty, and how to deal with uncertain information, is essential to improve decision making for the protection of the affected population and to minimise disruption of normal living conditions. The CONFIDENCE Project, funded under the H2020 CONCERT project, will perform research focussed on uncertainties in the area of emergency management and long-term rehabilitation, bringing together 32 partner organisations from accross Europe. It concentrates on the early and transition phases of an emergency, and combines scientific and modelling studies with social research on the preferences and opinions of stakeholders (including the public) and decision-makers (including radiological protection experts), as well as communication of uncertainties and training workshops. The project is comprised of 7 Work Packages (WPs), and NMBU is involved in 5 of these: WP1: Model Improvement through Uncertainty Analysis. WP3: Radioecological Modelling WP5: Social, Ethical and communicational aspects of Uncertainty Management WP6: Decision-Making Under Uncertainties WP7: Education and Training

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