BiodivERsA: Integrating citizen science data from national monitoring schemes to predict the impacts of global change scenarios on birds

Trekkfugler spiller en viktig rolle i økosystemtjenester, inkludert frøspredning i skoger, kontroll av skadeinsekter i landbruksområder og som jaktbare arter. I prosjektet «Future Bird Scenarios» undersøkte vi effekter av miljøendringer på fremtidige utbredelse av fugler og vurderte kostnadene og fordelene for samfunnet. Prosjektet var et internasjonalt samarbeid mellom forskere fra seks institusjoner i Norge, Sverige, Finland og USA. Vi samarbeidet også med «European Bird Census Council» og «Wetlands International» for å bruke data fra internasjonale overvåkningsprogram. Vi analyserte dataserier fra to internasjonale program (EBCC, Wetlands International), tre nasjonale program som omfattet telling av hekkefugler i Fennoskandia, og opportunistiske data fra tre databaser der alle interesserte kan registrere sine observasjoner (Artsobservasjoner, Artportalen og eBird). Vi svarte på fire viktige spørsmål. 1) Hvilke fuglearter vil sannsynligvis oppleve den største økologiske endringen? I en artikkel i «Wader Study» viste vi at tre arter har negative bestandstrender, mens 19 arter ikke hadde endringer. Langdistanse trekkfugler var de som mest sannsynlig kommer til å ha negative bestandstrender. I en artikkel i «Oecologia» viste vi at kortlivede arter flytter til mer høyereliggende områder under klimaendringer. 2) Hva er risikoene fra klimaendringer for fjellfugler? I en artikkel i «Global Change Biology» brukte vi nye modeller til å skille romlige og tidsmessige komponenter av temperatur og nedbør, og vi identifiserte fjellfugler som vil være sårbare for klimaendringer. 3) Er nåværende nettverk av verneområder tilstrekkelig for fremtidige bevaringsbehov? I nye artikler i «Biological Conservation» og «Conservation Biology» viser vi at beskyttede områder har den største bestanden av vannfugler, og at de beskytter både kulde- og varmetilpassede arter. 4) Hvor er flaskehalsene i fuglenes årlige sykluser? I en artikkel i «Environ. Res. Lett.» vi fant endringer i vinterutbredelsen til vannfugler i Europa, med reduserte utbredelser og endringer av utbredelsesområdene nordover. Forskningsresultater fra prosjektet inkluderte til sammen 20 fagfellevurderte artikler og bokkapitler, 6 manuskripter under arbeid, 18 presentasjoner på forskningskonferanser og to policydokumenter. Våre viktigste funn er inkludert i nye politiske dokumenter om klimatilpasningstiltak for fugler under the «Helsinki Commission» (HELCOM, Østersjøregionen), «Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds» (AEWA), og «Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change» (IPCC).

The four work packages (WP) of our project have contributed to conservation action by providing a better understanding of the range dynamics of breeding and nonbreeding birds in western Europe. In WP1 Species at Risk, we identified life-history traits that make birds sensitive to climate change. In migratory waders, long-distance migrants were more likely to exhibit population declines. In an analysis of mountain birds, we found that short-lived species were responsive and more likely to shift to higher elevations under climate change. In WP2 Mountain Birds, we identified the main components of climate that determine the distributions of alpine birds in Fennoscandia. We found that most mountain birds were adapted to cold sites but often had better population growth in warm wet years. We identified a subset of vulnerable species where relative abundance was higher in cold, dry sites that are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change. In WP3 Protected Areas, we successfully evaluated the potential for current networks of protected areas for conservation of migratory birds. Protected areas had higher abundance of waterbirds than nonprotected areas, and also supported bird communities that could retain cold-adapted species but also facilitate colonization by warm-adapted species. Sites with management plans with funding from the EU Life program performed better for conservation and had lower rates of community change. In WP4 Annual Bottlenecks, we identified seasonal bottlenecks in the annual cycle of migratory birds. We used individual-based models with a seasonal time step to show that natural populations of forest birds were stable in pristine areas but declining in managed forests. We also found greater changes in nonbreeding than breeding distributions of waterbirds. Comparisons between two rounds of the European Breeding Bird Atlas provided evidence for range contractions and poleward shifts in nonbreeding distributions. Our research results have had practical impacts for bird conservation because our major findings have been incorporated into policy documents regarding climate change adaptation measures for birds under the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM, Baltic Sea region), the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Anthropogenic change is driving changes in the abundance and distributions of avian biodiversity in western Europe, with complex effects on the ecosystem services provided by bird populations. Our proposed project is a research collaboration among the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) in Norway and five universities in Sweden, Finland, and the United States. Our project will be a novel synthesis of long-term data from a suite of national bird monitoring programs, and we will develop state-of-the-art statistical tools to predict future bird distributions under alternative global change scenarios. The major goals of our four work packages are: i) to identify functional traits that are good predictors of range shifts and to identify at risk taxa, ii) to examine the relative effects of climate change and land use change on breeding birds in alpine habitats that undergoing rapid ecological change, iii) to assess the value of current protected areas in western Europe and identify opportunities where habitat protection or restoration might benefit a wider conservation network, and iv) to simultaneously model range shifts in both breeding and nonbreeding distributions and develop new conservation strategies that benefit birds during the entire annual cycle. Our models of future range shifts will be a valuable planning tool for minimizing losses of key ecosystem services from birds in forest regeneration, pest management, and sustainable harvest. Range shifts will also be used to identify emerging areas of potential conflicts due to crop damage or to impacts on recreational fisheries. Alternative scenarios will be developed with engagement of stakeholders who are responsible for management of natural resources on public lands and environmental protections. We will partner with two nongovernmental agencies (EBBC, Wetlands International) to develop improved conservation policy for conservation of birds, their habitats, and associated biodiversity.