Tilbake til søkeresultatene

BEDREHELSE-Bedre helse og livskvalitet

Monitoring the population seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Norway to model and predict the current and future epidemics (Map-SARS)

Alternativ tittel: Seroprevalensen av sars-CoV-2 i den norske befolkningen for å modeller og predikere utviklingen av denne og fremtidige epidemier

Tildelt: kr 5,0 mill.

Frem til 23 juni 2022 hadde 539,1 millioner mennesker fått påvist Covid-19. Dette tallet består kun av de som faktisk har testet seg og fått påvist levende virus i kroppen og er derfor lavere enn det faktiske tallet på de som har hatt sykdommen siden mars 2020. En artikkel fra Lancet fra 2022 estimerer at 44% (eller 3,4 milliarder) har vært smittet. Spriket på registrerte smittede og antall sannsynlig smittede er altså stort og dette var bakgrunnen for gjennomføring av studien, mange i Norge mente at dette spriket også var stort i 2020/2021. Tallet på de som er påvist syke kan brukes til masse, men for å forstå sykdommen og utbredelsen i Norge enda bedre hadde det vært fint å vite hvor mange som faktisk har hatt viruset i kroppen siden pandemien brøt ut. For å finne dette ut kan man teste, via en liten blodprøve, tilstedeværelsen av såkalte antistoffer. Er de til stede, så har man på et eller annet tidspunkt hatt viruset i kroppen. Hvis for eksempel, det totale antallet påvist smittede i Norge var 1% og et representativt utvalg av deltakere i en studie viser at 3% har antistoffer, skjønner vi at det offisielle tallet på smittede er kraftig underestimert. I dette prosjektet samlet vi inn blodprøver fra 27 700 mennesker bosatt i Norge i slutten av 2020 og begynnelsen av 2021, alle over 16 år. Prøvene viste at 0,9% hadde antistoffer og hadde hatt viruset i kroppen. Det offisielle tallet på smittede på samme tidspunkt var 0,8%. Altså var det veldig få tilfeller i Norge som ikke var registrert. Det viser igjen at testingen, isoleringen, smittesporingen og karantene-ordningene (TISK) vi hadde i Norge var veldig effektive. Det er veldig viktig lærdom å ta med seg til neste gang noe slikt skjer.

The dataset did provide accurate information on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 amidst the pandemic, just before the first vaccines were administered. The results are published and easily accessible for the public and decision makers. The dataset does, however, contain much more information, including personal information from the participants that can be used for other epidemiological investigations. In addition, we have linked our participants with the official reporting system for infectious diseases (MSIS) to see how many of those with known past infection were missed by the antibody test. We are currently working with a publication that will increase the accuracy of mathematical modelling for estimations of the real number of infected people during a pandemic and the timing of infections in relation to detection of antibodies. Our findings thus far can be used to confirm that the Norwegian strategy related to testing, isolation, infection tracing and quarantine did, in fact, work as intended and managed to slow down and detain the pandemic until we knew what we were dealing with. We did not implement an open-source dashboard. Our data were too limited in time and the seroprevalence so low that coincidence, randomness and rapidly changing restrictions, more than anything else, dictated the spread of the disease. Instead we will use our questionnaires to ascertain which demographic and behavioural characteristics increased or decreased) the risk of infection. The study demonstrated that mass sampling of blood through the use of micro samples without the involvement (or added stress) of the medical community is feasible amidst a pandemic. Lessons learned from this activity have been used actively in global health initiatives in the republic of Georgia, where we are currently setting up a surveillance system involving micro sampling in kids. The micro sampling methods used in the "Monitoring the population seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Norway to model and predict the current and future epidemics" project are being improved so that we are able to sample a known volume of blood, thus allowing relative quantification of virtually any substance present, for example environmental contaminants. If successful, this will virtually eliminate the need for extraction of larger volumes of venous blood in children in the future.

The current COVID-19 pandemic is an emergency with difficult challenges. Most cases have mild symptoms and transmissions occur pre-symptomatically or even asymptomatically. Furthermore, there are large differences in mortality rates between countries. Limited testing and epidemiological uncertainties lead to possible underestimation of the scope of the epidemic. Data are needed to estimate the true prevalence of the disease and tools to assess changes and predictions of the epidemic dynamics. The goals of this project are to assess the seroprevalence the Sars-Cov-2 infection in the Norwegian population at multiple time points, to accurately model the epidemic dynamics and establish a system for continuous assessment of changes in overall immunity in the population. The seroprevalence will be assessed by collecting blood samples in a random sample of 10 000 Norwegians above the age of 16, that will be analysed for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The participants will be asked to donate a blood sample through their Home Doctor Network (Praksisnett). Additionally, the participants will complete a questionnaire with personal information, including living/working conditions and travels. The participants will report symptoms on a weekly basis through the NIPH platform hosted by Helsenorge. The national seroprevalence will be assessed in the fall and early 2021 to assess changes after the summer and the flu season. Additional blood samples may be collected, depending on necessity and availability of funding. Questionnaires and transportation databases will allow machine- and complex network modeling to improve understanding of the evolution of the epidemic. Comparative data analysis will be carried out in collaboration with our international partners (UK and Italy. The project will be part of a national effort and an open source dashboard will be implemented to make data and results available.

Budsjettformål:

BEDREHELSE-Bedre helse og livskvalitet