Koronakommisjonens tredje hovedfunn konstaterer: «Det er behov for å utvikle et sektorovergripende system som fanger opp hvordan risikoen i de ulike sektorene påvirker hverandre gjensidig.» Med andre ord at COVID-19-strategien må bero på vurdering og håndtering av systemisk risiko. «Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019» ved UNDRR sier rett ut: ?Realizing the systemic nature of risks, and the opportunities afforded by new approaches and new concepts of risk will be the central challenge of the first half of the twenty-first century.?
SPRM-prosjektet har i samarbeid med Kristiansand kommune, Sørlandet sykehus, Senter for integrert krisehåndtering (CIEM) fra Universitetet i Agder og to sentre om katastrofemedisin fra Italia og Sverige laget en metode for vurdering og håndtering av systemisk pandemirisiko og testet den som «proof of concept». Metoden krever høy erfaring og kompetanse i fasilitering av workshops med nøye valgte eksperter med relevant kompetanse i samfunnssektorer som påvirkes av pandemien. Metoden krever også høy erfaring og kompetanse i analyse av systemiske risikomodeller.
I SPRM prosjektets siste 12 måneder utvikles algoritmer for automatisering av analyse av risikomodeller og utvikling av porteføljer av strategier som er effektive og gjennomførbare. Det vil gjøre bruken av SPRMs metoder betydelig lettere for sluttbrukere.
Traditional risk and vulnerability assessments consider the impact of risks in isolation from one another and, hence, do not take account of the interactions between risks. These interactions create a system of associated risks and outcomes, where the outcomes of risks are risks themselves and where the resulting consequences can be complex. Risks are a system where a single risk can cause a plethora of other risks, and, in particular, cause vicious cycles of risks. The challenge is urgent: the risk literature calls for substantial research and development of systemic risk assessment and mitigation. The Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated this urgent need and proved Gro Harlem Brundtland’s dictum “everything is connected” to be forcefully valid to the health and care sector, and moreover that all sectors of society were impacted and impacted back on the health and care sector.
The project will begin with an evaluation of the preparedness and response to Covid-19 in the Kristiansand metropolitan area. An early project outcome will be a consultancy service expected to be in high demand by the health and care sector, but also by businesses in Norway and internationally. As the project unfolds, consultancy will be enhanced by tool modules. The final outcome will be a tool allowing public sector entities, and private corporations, to conduct risk and vulnerability assessments with full consideration of the systemic inter-dependencies, and to develop preparedness and responses to a pandemic, within the health and care sector and externally with sectors affecting the health and care sector. Tool and method will be validated with partners in Norway, Italy and Sweden.
SPRM will provide state of the art tools and methods to improve preparedness and response to pandemic crises within the health and care sector, but also in any public organizations and in enterprises vulnerable to economic consequences of pandemics, such as airlines, cruise lines, insurance companies, etc.
